33 Pecan Run Pass · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2000 10,019 sqft lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $266k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale. Huge reduction: Great starter home or investor alert. Appliances are at the end of their life span, roof is 15 plus years and AC 15 plus years. Make an offer today. Property must be actively listed for 5 days to meet lenders requirement before an offer can be accepted. All room dimensions are approximate and need to be verified by the buyer. Please note NO SELLER CONCESSIONS, FHA or otherwise.

Key facts

• 2021 roof
• 2021 well pump
• 2025 a/c system

Tags

• 2021 ROOF
• 2025 A/C SYSTEM
• 2021 WELL PUMP
• 2022 SHED
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residential, R1 zoning
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Phone service available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces northwest
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Asphalt-paved road access; Shed(s) and additional storage; Covered, front, rear and screened porches

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Covered front and rear porches with screened areas; Private mailbox; Storage shed(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Inside laundry with laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Greenway Elementary School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 736 students, 67% FRL); Fort King Middle School (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #410 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,092 students, 71% FRL); Forest High School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 2,325 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $255k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,518 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.28%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,837
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -4.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Redwood Trace Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-2%)	2mo	$255,000	$160	80
8 Pecan Run Ter	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-10%)	5mo	$264,900	$182	76
30 Hemlock Terrace Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+3%)	4mo	$225,000	$135	73
14 Redwood Track Pass	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-10%)	3mo	$275,000	$189	66
19 Hemlock Terrace Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,595 (-2%)	12mo	$203,000	$127	64
6191 Hemlock Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,818 (+12%)	1mo	$265,900	$146	60
52 Pecan Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-10%)	8mo	$255,000	$175	59
9 Pecan Run Ter	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+13%)	4mo	$323,070	$177	57
16 Pecan Run Crse	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,441 (-11%)	10mo	$263,000	$183	56
11 Fir Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-7%)	6mo	$242,000	$160	53
24 Fir Drive Trce	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-10%)	9mo	$260,000	$179	50
156 Pecan Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-14%)	5mo	$250,000	$180	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $51,188
• Equity at exit: $159,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $154,130
• Equity at exit: $287,801

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,604/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,207

Max offer price $210,034

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-110	-5% $-182	+0% $-255	+5% $-327	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-403	-5% $-329	+0% $-255	+5% $-180	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-126	-0.5pp $-190	base $-255	+0.5pp $-321	+1.0pp $-388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38 Pecan Run Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.5	2086	$2,100	$1.01	23d	1	0.04mi
19 Pecan Pass Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,750	$1.28	23d	1	0.18mi
5614 Pecan Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	23d	1	0.24mi
36 Pecan Run Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,850	$1.56	15d	1	0.30mi
96 Redwood Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	15d	1	0.34mi
13 Redwood Trace Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	23d	1	0.42mi
106 Redwood Track Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,675	$1.19	15d	1	0.43mi
45 Redwood Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,695	$1.18	23d	1	0.49mi
9 Teak Way Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,800	$1.33	15d	1	0.99mi
6875 SE 52nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,750	$1.08	23d	1	1.12mi
9 Banyan Course Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,599	$1.19	23d	1	1.16mi
6688 Cherry Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,950	$1.54	15d	1	1.18mi
113 Teak Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	3.0	2086	$2,150	$1.03	15d	1	1.19mi
136 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,990	$1.09	15d	1	1.31mi
149 Hickory Course Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,100	$1.15	15d	1	1.38mi
7044 Hemlock Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	15d	1	1.38mi
492 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,750	$1.18	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $255,000 Active 889-char remark
18. 2020-02-13
    soldstatus $94,500
19. 2020-02-11
    soldstatus $94,500 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Short Sale. Huge reduction: Great starter home or investor alert. Appliances are at the end of their life span, roof is 15 plus years and AC 15 plus years. Make an offer today. Property must be actively listed for 5 days to meet lenders requirement before an offer can be accepted. All room dimensions are approximate and need to be verified by the buyer. Please note NO SELLER CONCESSIONS, FHA or otherwise.

20. 2019-02-11
    listed $99,500 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Short Sale. Huge reduction: Great starter home or investor alert. Appliances are at the end of their life span, roof is 15 plus years and AC 15 plus years. Make an offer today. Property must be actively listed for 5 days to meet lenders requirement before an offer can be accepted. All room dimensions are approximate and need to be verified by the buyer. Please note NO SELLER CONCESSIONS, FHA or otherwise.

21. 2006-04-20
    soldstatus $94,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,604 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,604 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,604
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,819
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+169.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $94,500 Public Records
• 2020-02-11 Sold (MLS) $94,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-11 Listed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $94,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,604 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.