None · Commack, NY 11725

$1,150,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1994 5,227 sqft lot Est $1206k · at est. $418/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Townhouse in The Hamlet Golf and Country Club. Membership is required

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Championship course
• On-site restaurant

Tags

• GATED GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
• CHAMPIONSHIP COURSE
• ON-SITE RESTAURANT
• CLUBHOUSE
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR PATIO
• GOURMET EAT-IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.15M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $1.15M).
• Recommended offer: $1.08M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.3% in Commack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#319 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Commack Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #61 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rolling Hills School (229 students, 20% FRL); Commack Middle School (math 54% / reading 67%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,322 students, 16% FRL); Commack High School (math 98% / reading 97%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 1,861 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $505k; list at $1.15M implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,081,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.10%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,206,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
63 Hamlet Dr #63	0.14mi	3/3.5	3,600 (-3%)	11mo	$999,000	$278	80
94 Stonehurst Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,300 (-11%)	9mo	$1,075,000	$326	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-149,602
• Equity at exit: $171,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-80,799
• Equity at exit: $99,431

Cash invested: $322,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11725

• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,031
• Tax from tax record: −$1,987 /mo · $23,848/yr
• Insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$418
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,285

Max offer price $1,150,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,216	-5% $890	+0% $565	+5% $239	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $91	+0% $565	+5% $1,039	+10% $1,513
Rate	-1.0pp $1,144	-0.5pp $857	base $565	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $287,500
• Closing costs: $34,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 McCulloch Dr Dix Hills, NY	4.0	3.5	3800	$12,000	$3.16	44d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $418 · $5,016/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   price $1,150,000
3. 2026-03-06
   price $1,225,000
4. 2026-02-02
   listed $1,275,000 Active
5. 2026-02-02
   historical
6. 2026-01-02
   listed $1,275,000 Active
7. 2026-01-02
   listed $1,250,000 Active
8. 2026-01-02
   historical
9. 2026-01-01
   historical
10. 2025-12-02
    price $1,275,000
11. 2025-10-01
    price $1,299,000
12. 2025-09-10
    listed $1,350,000 Active
13. 1998-07-22
    soldstatus $505,000
14. 1994-05-17
    soldstatus $427,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $23,848 · $1,987/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,848 · $1,987/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,418
• − Property taxes: −$23,848
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − HOA: −$5,016
• − Depreciation: −$33,455
• Taxable loss: −$11,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,766
• After-tax cash flow: $9,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commack Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608130
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $117,583
• Composite: 69.52/100
• National rank: #306
• State rank: #61 of 590 in NY

Livability — Commack

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #5296

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commack, NY
• City population: 58,941
• Population (ZIP): 29,050

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -795.52%
• Current HPI: 262.3806
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+169.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $1,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $1,225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $1,275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Listed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Listed $1,275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $1,275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $1,299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Listed $1,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $505,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $427,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $23,848 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.