389 Hilltop Trl · New Fairview, TX 76078

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2007 2.00 ac lot Est $249k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath doublewide home on approx. 2 acres. Formal livling area at entry with dining and kitchen beyond divider wall. Family room or playroom by secondary bedrooms and full bath. Master suite has walk-in closet and oversized shower in bath. Kitchen has work island and plenty of cabinets. Buyer to verify schools and room sizes.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking or carport; no designated parking features indicated
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Co-op water; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One level; Property attached
• Construction: Built in 2007; Composition roof
• Exterior features: 2.0-acre lot; Horse permitted; Directions: Use GPS — once on Hilltop property will be on the left; 2 flag poles in the yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar and kitchen island; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath and walk-in closet; One bedroom on main level with split-bedroom layout and walk-in closet; One bedroom on main level with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Two living areas; One dining area; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Separate utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Decatur ISD (town): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #323 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carson El (math 37% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 548 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,487 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,976
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
156 Aydelotte Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-6%)	7mo	$260,000	$191	52
289 Wilson Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	23mo	$190,000	$121	34
153 Aydelotte Ct	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+14%)	14mo	$285,000	$171	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $119,993
• Equity at exit: $189,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $349,114
• Equity at exit: $407,984

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,789/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,904

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $210,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,789 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$54/yr (+$5/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,789
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$576
• After-tax cash flow: $1,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816500
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,504
• Composite: 36.33/100
• National rank: #4691
• State rank: #323 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Fairview, TX
• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+500.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2010-01-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-12-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-12-06 Listed $35,000 NTREIS
• 2007-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,789 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.