667 Bay Leaf Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · Other public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2023 2,622 sqft lot $305/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 38% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LGI Homes is proud to present the Citrus, a move-in ready home with three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms and an open-concept floor plan. As part of our CompleteHome™ package, the Citrus floor plan comes with jaw-dropping features and finishes you will have to see to believe. In addition, Noah Estates at Tuscany Preserve offers residents a premier access to amenities such as a splash pad, swimming pool, fitness center, and more!

Key facts

• Dual-sink bath
• Walk-in closet
• Private patio

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL-SINK BATH
• PRIVATE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,177 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.32%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-33,795
• Equity at exit: $41,538

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-46,488
• Equity at exit: $40,031

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,736/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$305
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $156,177

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
922 Centaury Dr Unit 1 Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	2166	$1,900	$0.88	14d	1	0.29mi
145 Ocean Bluff Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,500	$1.20	23d	1	0.31mi
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	23d	1	0.35mi
404 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,775	$1.34	14d	1	0.37mi
14201 Indian Creek Dr #14201 Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,450	$1.19	23d	1	0.37mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	11d	1	0.39mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	14d	1	0.40mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	23d	1	0.43mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	3d	1	0.43mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	3d	1	0.49mi
407 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,600	$0.86	11d	1	0.50mi
1786 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	3d	1	0.50mi
1782 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	3d	1	0.52mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	23d	1	0.53mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	3d	1	0.53mi
1764 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,390	$1.32	3d	1	0.54mi
1563 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	14d	1	0.60mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$1,695	$1.13	2d	1	0.63mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	3d	1	0.66mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	14d	1	0.67mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	23d	1	0.67mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	23d	1	0.71mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	23d	1	0.73mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	3d	1	0.74mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	3d	1	0.76mi
319 Erie Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,765	$1.35	14d	1	0.77mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	23d	1	0.77mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	23d	1	0.79mi
1951 Michigan Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1562	$2,060	$1.32	14d	1	0.80mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	3d	1	0.81mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	3d	1	0.81mi
1912 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1420	$1,995	$1.40	23d	1	0.81mi
1851 Superior Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,800	$1.08	23d	1	0.82mi
1907 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	23d	1	0.86mi
1805 Hudson Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,835	$1.20	23d	1	0.87mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	14d	1	0.89mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	3d	1	0.90mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	23d	1	0.92mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	3d	1	0.94mi
307 Michigan Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,744	$1.04	14d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $305 · $3,660/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-02-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-06
   listed $190,000 Active
3. 2025-06-26
   listed $316,000 Active
4. 2024-10-23
   historical $1,600
5. 2024-10-04
   price $1,600
6. 2024-09-28
   price $1,650
7. 2024-09-07
   price $1,700
8. 2024-09-05
   price $1,750
9. 2024-08-29
   price $1,780
10. 2024-08-14
    price $1,800
11. 2024-08-05
    price $1,850
12. 2024-07-16
    price $1,900
13. 2024-06-26
    price $2,000
14. 2024-06-20
    price $2,100
15. 2024-06-12
    listed $2,200
16. 2023-07-04
    historical
17. 2023-04-26
    soldstatus $304,900 Closed 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    LGI Homes is proud to present the Citrus, a move-in ready home with three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms and an open-concept floor plan. As part of our CompleteHome™ package, the Citrus floor plan comes with jaw-dropping features and finishes you will have to see to believe. In addition, Noah Estates at Tuscany Preserve offers residents a premier access to amenities such as a splash pad, swimming pool, fitness center, and more!

18. 2023-04-13
    status Pending 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    LGI Homes is proud to present the Citrus, a move-in ready home with three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms and an open-concept floor plan. As part of our CompleteHome™ package, the Citrus floor plan comes with jaw-dropping features and finishes you will have to see to believe. In addition, Noah Estates at Tuscany Preserve offers residents a premier access to amenities such as a splash pad, swimming pool, fitness center, and more!

19. 2023-03-24
    status Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    LGI Homes is proud to present the Citrus, a move-in ready home with three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms and an open-concept floor plan. As part of our CompleteHome™ package, the Citrus floor plan comes with jaw-dropping features and finishes you will have to see to believe. In addition, Noah Estates at Tuscany Preserve offers residents a premier access to amenities such as a splash pad, swimming pool, fitness center, and more!

20. 2023-03-20
    status Pending 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    LGI Homes is proud to present the Citrus, a move-in ready home with three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms and an open-concept floor plan. As part of our CompleteHome™ package, the Citrus floor plan comes with jaw-dropping features and finishes you will have to see to believe. In addition, Noah Estates at Tuscany Preserve offers residents a premier access to amenities such as a splash pad, swimming pool, fitness center, and more!

21. 2023-03-15
    listed $304,900 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    LGI Homes is proud to present the Citrus, a move-in ready home with three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms and an open-concept floor plan. As part of our CompleteHome™ package, the Citrus floor plan comes with jaw-dropping features and finishes you will have to see to believe. In addition, Noah Estates at Tuscany Preserve offers residents a premier access to amenities such as a splash pad, swimming pool, fitness center, and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,736 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,736 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,736
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − HOA: −$3,660
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,289
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-37.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Listed $316,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-23 Rental Removed $1,600 STELLARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $1,600 STELLARMLS
• 2024-09-28 Price Changed $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $1,700 STELLARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $1,780 STELLARMLS
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $1,850 STELLARMLS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $1,900 STELLARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $2,000 STELLARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $2,100 STELLARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed for Rent $2,200 STELLARMLS
• 2023-07-04 Rental Removed — STELLARMLS
• 2023-04-26 Sold (MLS) $304,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-15 Listed $304,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+138.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,736 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.