139 Fernley Rd SW · Shallotte, NC 28469

$288,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,743 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 2024 6,970 sqft lot Est $282k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Highland floor plan is a stunning one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Craftsman-style cottage that combines timeless design with modern comfort. This thoughtfully designed home features open and flowing living spaces accentuated by serene coastal color palettes, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. Enjoy three spacious bedrooms and a beautifully integrated open-concept living area that's perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. A coveted flex space offers additional versatility—ideal for a home office, reading nook, or media room. This home also includes 9-foot ceilings, luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring, blinds, window screens, and granite countertops, blending

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with professional management; Annual association fee of $600 (about $50/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water and sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.16-acre lot; Lot dimensions approximately 20 x 30 x 130 x 46 x 22 x 106
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Irrigation system; Has a view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Master bedroom located on the main level; Walk-in closet(s); High ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-332/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Shallotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#411 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary (math 83% / reading 76%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 571 students, 100% FRL); Shallotte Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 674 students, 100% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brunswick County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 536 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,331 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,366
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
970 Hillrose Ln SW #04	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,731 (-1%)	3mo	$279,900	$162	95
966 Hillrose Ln SW #03	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,749 (+0%)	3mo	$284,880	$163	90
978 Hillrose Ln SW #6	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,583 (-9%)	2mo	$267,100	$169	82
528 Belfort Ln SW #152	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,731 (-1%)	3mo	$279,900	$162	81
505 Belfort Ln SW #74	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,731 (-1%)	3mo	$269,900	$156	79
1030 Beechridge Dr SW #73	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,701 (-2%)	1mo	$258,000	$152	69
1046 Beechridge Dr SW #69	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,583 (-9%)	1mo	$279,900	$177	65
1038 Beechridge Dr SW #71	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,583 (-9%)	3mo	$264,900	$167	64
446 Hinton Ln SW #114	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+12%)	1mo	$340,200	$174	62
524 Belfort Ln SW #151	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+12%)	3mo	$279,900	$144	58
1118 Lot 204 Ramsey Cooper Hawk Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,666 (-4%)	1mo	$253,350	$152	55
1118 Cooper Hawk Ln SW Lot 204 Ramsey	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,666 (-4%)	1mo	$253,350	$152	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,542
• Equity at exit: $42,942

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-44,997
• Equity at exit: $24,901

Cash invested: $80,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28469

• Active inventory: 536
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $866/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,218

Max offer price $283,117

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,000
• Closing costs: $8,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
855 Bertwood Rd SW Ocean Isle Beach, NC	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,175	$1.24	23d	1	0.13mi
2033 Osprey Isle Ln SW , NC	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	23d	1	0.47mi
2037 Osprey Isle Ln SW , NC	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	23d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $288,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $288,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $288,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $288,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $288,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $288,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $288,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $288,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $288,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,000 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $288,000 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $289,000
18. 2026-03-24
    price $292,000
19. 2026-03-20
    price $299,000
20. 2026-02-13
    listed $305,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $866 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,496/yr (+$125/mo · 172.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,132
• − Property taxes: −$866
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,378
• Taxable loss: −$5,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,298
• After-tax cash flow: $966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Shallotte

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #15490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,219
• Population (ZIP): 9,364

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.51%
• Current HPI: 143.229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $289,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $292,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $299,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $305,000 Hive MLS