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4079 Lake Bayshore Dr #308 🌊 Lakefront
D Composite 44.06
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • 1% rule +9.1/10.0
  • Cash flow +6.4/30.0
  • Livability +3.9/5.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Schools +3.3/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.9/5.0
  • DSCR +0.7/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$109,000

4079 Lake Bayshore Dr #308 · South Bradenton, FL 34205
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Condo · 187 Days on market
Built 1975 Good condition $95/sqft · 40% below area Est $182k · 40% under · waterfront $645/mo HOA · 42% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

2/2 Condominium in Bradenton. Great location and great view. Move in ready with a few cosmetic upgrades. Plenty of space for you to enjoy paradise.

Key facts

  • $645 HOA
  • Community pool
  • Built 1975

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $109k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (24.8% below list).
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
  • Recommended offer: $82k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Robert H. Prine Elementary School (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 744 students, 75% FRL); W. D. Sugg Middle School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #462 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,010 students, 72% FRL); Southeast High School (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,716 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 400 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $81,984 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  11. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
  12. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
  13. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
  14. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  15. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.41%
Cap rate
4.24%
Cash-on-cash
-7.34%
DSCR
0.67
GRM
5.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$182,500
List price
$109,000
Delta
-40.27%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
2 within 3.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-36.0%
Equity multiple
-0.10×
Total profit
$-33,629
Equity at exit
$16,252
10-year hold
IRR
Equity multiple
-0.97×
Total profit
$-60,260
Equity at exit
$9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
7 active · 3 under contract
Median asking
$129,900 ($114/sqft)
Median days on market
175 d
This list price
29% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+40.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34205

Rents YoY
-2.4%
Active inventory
400
Price-to-rent
5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,534 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$572
Tax est. 1.5%
$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
Insurance
$45
HOA
$645
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$322
Net cashflow
$-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,770
Max offer price $81,984
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-111 -5% $-149 +0% $-187 +5% $-224 +10% $-262
Rent -10% $-308 -5% $-247 +0% $-187 +5% $-126 +10% $-66
Rate -1.0pp $-132 -0.5pp $-159 base $-187 +0.5pp $-215 +1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$27,250
Closing costs
$3,270
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 912 $1,400 $1.54 98d 1 0.04mi
4242 Heron Way Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 1196 $1,500 $1.25 9d 1 0.08mi
3693 Lake Bayshore Dr Bldg H Bradenton, FL 1.0 1.0 760 $1,295 $1.70 65d 1 0.14mi
4121 Heron Way #108 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,340 $1.17 87d 1 0.16mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 1040 $1,200 $1.15 110d 1 0.16mi
3635 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit J410 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,700 $1.49 119d 1 0.16mi
4129 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit C501 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,500 $1.31 9d 1 0.16mi
4111 Heron Way Unit E103 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,450 $1.27 9d 1 0.16mi
4121 Heron Way #108 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,340 $1.17 119d 1 0.16mi
4143 Heron Way Unit 207 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,500 $1.31 0d 1 0.16mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 912 $1,150 $1.26 116d 1 0.16mi
4127 Heron Way Unit E-111 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,450 $1.27 9d 1 0.17mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL 1.0 1.0 768 $1,250 $1.63 119d 1 0.17mi
3122 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,450 $1.27 9d 1 0.23mi
3124 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 219 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $2,300 $2.01 119d 1 0.23mi
3064 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 115 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,250 $1.09 119d 1 0.23mi
3525 19th St W Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 870 $1,600 $1.84 9d 1 0.24mi
4540 19th Street Cir W Unit 4405-D Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 804 $1,495 $1.86 9d 1 0.33mi
3528 14th St W Bradenton, FL 1.0 1.0 720 $1,300 $1.81 9d 1 0.38mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 806 $1,510 $1.87 0d 31 0.40mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 850 $2,200 $2.59 119d 1 0.43mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL 3.0 1.0–2.0 874 $1,725 $1.97 5d 4 0.45mi
3316 26th St W Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1472 $1,999 $1.36 9d 1 0.46mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 1017 $1,942 $1.91 0d 10 0.47mi
2105 46th Avenue Dr W Unit 2405 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 884 $2,100 $2.38 73d 1 0.52mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 945 $1,500 $1.59 7d 1 0.55mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL 1.0 1.0 715 $1,199 $1.68 119d 1 0.55mi
4607 21st St W Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1133 $2,500 $2.21 119d 1 0.56mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 940 $1,400 $1.49 87d 1 0.64mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 940 $1,400 $1.49 80d 1 0.64mi
1812 47th Avenue Dr W Unit 1812 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1200 $1,950 $1.62 76d 1 0.65mi
2901 26th St W Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 940 $1,650 $1.76 9d 2 0.65mi
3617 32nd St W Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1276 $1,800 $1.41 7d 1 0.66mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 750 $1,325 $1.77 98d 1 0.71mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 750 $1,325 $1.77 87d 1 0.71mi
3512 32nd St W Bradenton, FL 2.0 1.0 1200 $1,800 $1.50 93d 1 0.71mi
1007 35th Ave W Bradenton, FL 3.0 1.0 950 $1,499 $1.58 9d 1 0.73mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL 3.0 1.0 950 $1,499 $1.58 85d 1 0.74mi
915 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL 3.0 1.0 950 $1,399 $1.47 9d 1 0.75mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL 3.0 1.0 985 $1,599 $1.62 115d 1 0.76mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Living area reported as 1,144 sq ft (public records)Lot size reported as approximately 2.23 acres
Financial info
Total annual fees: $7,740Unit is unfurnished
HOA & community
Monthly association fee of $645 (includes cable TV, pool, insurance, internet, pest control, trash, water)Association name: Resource ManagementAssociation fees requiredCommunity is a senior communityPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

Parking
Information not provided
Security
Information not provided
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerCable availableElectricity available
Home design
CondominiumResidential propertySingle-story unit in a building with three or more levelsUnit faces southCompleted condition
Construction
Block constructionConcrete roofSlab foundationBuilding identified as C
Exterior features
Asphalt road accessLot includes deed restrictionsSidewalks

Interior

Kitchen
CooktopRangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorElectric water heater
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms (unit on 3rd floor)
Flooring
CarpetLinoleum
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Ceiling fansLiving room/dining room comboElevator in building
Laundry & utility
Laundry room

HOA detail $645/mo · $7,740/yr condo

Assessments
None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-22
    days on market $109,000 Active 187 DOM
  2. 2026-09-21
    days on market $109,000 Active 186 DOM
  3. 2026-09-20
    days on market $109,000 Active 185 DOM
  4. 2026-09-19
    days on market $109,000 Active 184 DOM
  5. 2026-09-18
    days on market $109,000 Active 183 DOM
  6. 2026-09-17
    days on market $109,000 Active 182 DOM
  7. 2026-09-16
    days on market $109,000 Active 181 DOM
  8. 2026-09-15
    days on market $109,000 Active 180 DOM
  9. 2026-09-14
    days on market $109,000 Active 179 DOM
  10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $109,000 Active 178 DOM
  11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $109,000 Active 177 DOM
  12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $109,000 Active 176 DOM
  13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 170 DOM
  14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $109,000 Active 169 DOM
  15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 168 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 165 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 164 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $109,000 Active 163 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $109,000 Active 162 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $109,000 Active 161 DOM
  21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $109,000 Active 160 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $109,000 Active 159 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $109,000 Active 158 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $109,000 Active 157 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $109,000 Active 156 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $109,000 Active 155 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $109,000 Active 154 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $109,000 Active 153 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $109,000 Active 152 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $109,000 Active 151 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $109,000 Active 150 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $109,000 Active 149 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $109,000 Active 148 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $109,000 Active 147 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $109,000 Active 146 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $109,000 Active 145 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $109,000 Active 144 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $109,000 Active 143 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $109,000 Active 142 DOM
  40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 141 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $109,000 Active 140 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 139 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $109,000 Active 138 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 137 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 134 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 132 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $109,000 Active 131 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $109,000 Active 127 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $109,000 Active 126 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $109,000 Active 125 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$18,404
− Mortgage interest
−$6,106
− Property taxes
−$1,635
− Insurance
−$545
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,472
− Management
−$1,472
− HOA
−$7,740
− Depreciation
−$3,171
Taxable loss
−$3,738
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$897
After-tax cash flow
$-1,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,720–$17,160 screening

This 2/2 condo is move-in ready with a few cosmetic upgrades, offering a great location and view.

Repairs flagged

  • Minor Kitchen backsplash — Appears worn and could benefit from a fresh look
  • Minor Bathroom fixtures — Could be updated for a more modern look

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value
  • Both Replace kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can enhance the kitchen's appeal and functionality
  • Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can significantly boost the bathroom's value

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert H. Prine Elementary School F FL #1,560/2,144 Nat'l #20,819/41,679 Middle W. D. Sugg Middle School F FL #462/571 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High Southeast High School F FL #447/667 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — South Bradenton

Score
77/100
State rank
#195
US rank
#3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
South Bradenton, FL
County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
31,946
Household income
$52,525
Rent vs Own
40.3% rent · 59.7% own
Severe rent burden
18% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (65%)
Race & ethnicity
White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
Common ancestry
Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born
15% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-03-19 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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