3411 S Camino Seco -- #332 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 84 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $73/sqft · 34% below area Est $137k · 34% under $749/mo HOA · 43% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This lovely 3-bedroom home is beautifully maintained and has lots of upgrades and improvements. Within the last 4 years all cabinetry has been replaced with new cabinets with easy/quiet close hinges. New laminate Floors, solid core doors throughout, crystal door knobs, new light fixtures and granite counter tops throughout the house. Copper farmhouse kitchen sink with new faucet, a copper stove hood.New Frigidaire brand electric stove, microwave and dishwasher. A new LG French door refrigerator w/bottom freezer drawer. New glass and wood sinks in both bathrooms. Carrier 4 ton HVAC Unit Installed along with a new water heater. Purchased a new Maytag washer and dryer. A new ring camera, new curtains and rods will convey with home. Roof was re coated and dusk to dawn porch lights were installed. Termite prevention treatment which is transferable on payment of annual maintenance fee. Home has been Home re-piped with PEX plumbing and has been leveled. The home has two carports, a metal storage shed and Trex decking. It also has an EZ Go Golf Cart w/charger which also conveys with home

Key facts

• New cabinets
• New laminate floors
• New light fixtures

Tags

• NEW CABINETS
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORS
• SOLID CORE DOORS
• CRYSTAL DOOR KNOBS
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($222/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $90k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,820
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -34.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3411 S Camino Seco #12	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-11%)	3mo	$69,000	$63	72
3768 S Andrew Johnson Ave	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+1%)	6mo	$212,500	$170	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-18,074
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-32,165
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$749
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,735

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $50	+0% $18	+5% $-13	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-51	+0% $18	+5% $88	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $41	base $18	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3455 S Magda Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	0.23mi
8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	799	$1,295	$1.62	20d	1	0.61mi
8829 E Eagle Creek Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,830	$1.43	16d	1	0.63mi
2650 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,500	$1.12	44d	1	0.68mi
4289 S Goodall Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,950	$1.42	44d	1	0.76mi
8737 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,095	$1.51	44d	1	0.81mi
8981 E Golf Links Rd Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	971	$1,890	$1.95	44d	1	0.81mi
2618 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1442	$1,299	$0.90	24d	1	0.84mi
4433 S Sunrise Bluff Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	24d	1	0.86mi
8763 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,995	$1.58	4d	1	0.89mi
9009 E Kinross Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,715	$1.32	22d	1	0.95mi
8755 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,925	$1.31	17d	1	0.95mi
9172 E Corte Arroyo Oeste Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	4d	1	0.98mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,899	$2.20	2d	22	0.98mi
8024 E Victoria Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,500	$1.33	24d	1	0.99mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,308	$1.49	3d	1	1.04mi
7983 E Escalante Rd Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	15d	1	1.09mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,645	$1.41	24d	1	1.10mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	4d	1	1.10mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	4d	1	1.11mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	22d	1	1.11mi
3410 S Lakeside Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,800	$1.42	24d	1	1.12mi
9055 E Alderpoint Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	22d	1	1.14mi
8061 E Senate St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1298	$1,700	$1.31	22d	1	1.17mi
2425 S Rose Peak Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,200	$1.46	17d	1	1.21mi
2024 S Birdie Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,675	$1.13	4d	1	1.22mi
9802 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1416	$1,945	$1.37	12d	1	1.23mi
9801 E Domenic Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,791	$1.25	12d	1	1.23mi
7701 E 45th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,395	$1.24	12d	1	1.38mi
9699 E Vendela St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,800	$1.55	44d	1	1.38mi
9746 E Sascha St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,800	$1.76	15d	1	1.39mi
9961 E Skyward Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,550	$1.53	3d	1	1.45mi
9960 E Banister Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,575	$1.26	44d	1	1.47mi
3892 S Evergreen Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	730	$1,295	$1.77	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $749 · $8,988/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $90,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-03-18
    listed $90,000 Active 1107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1107 chars)

    This lovely 3-bedroom home is beautifully maintained and has lots of upgrades and improvements. Within the last 4 years all cabinetry has been replaced with new cabinets with easy/quiet close hinges. New laminate Floors, solid core doors throughout, crystal door knobs, new light fixtures and granite counter tops throughout the house. Copper farmhouse kitchen sink with new faucet, a copper stove hood.New Frigidaire brand electric stove, microwave and dishwasher. A new LG French door refrigerator w/bottom freezer drawer. New glass and wood sinks in both bathrooms. Carrier 4 ton HVAC Unit Installed along with a new water heater. Purchased a new Maytag washer and dryer. A new ring camera, new curtains and rods will convey with home. Roof was re coated and dusk to dawn porch lights were installed. Termite prevention treatment which is transferable on payment of annual maintenance fee. Home has been Home re-piped with PEX plumbing and has been leveled. The home has two carports, a metal storage shed and Trex decking. It also has an EZ Go Golf Cart w/charger which also conveys with home

11. 2021-07-15
    soldstatus $38,000 Closed 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Pride of ownership and an in-demand 55+ community! Home is well-taken-care-of with two carports. Updated washer and dryer and plenty of space gives a modern feel with flexible options. Come by, see the amenities, imagine living with such space, and make the home your own! 55+ community, cash offers only, community application must be approved.

12. 2021-05-31
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Pride of ownership and an in-demand 55+ community! Home is well-taken-care-of with two carports. Updated washer and dryer and plenty of space gives a modern feel with flexible options. Come by, see the amenities, imagine living with such space, and make the home your own! 55+ community, cash offers only, community application must be approved.

13. 2021-04-16
    price $45,000 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Pride of ownership and an in-demand 55+ community! Home is well-taken-care-of with two carports. Updated washer and dryer and plenty of space gives a modern feel with flexible options. Come by, see the amenities, imagine living with such space, and make the home your own! 55+ community, cash offers only, community application must be approved.

14. 2021-03-26
    price $50,000 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Pride of ownership and an in-demand 55+ community! Home is well-taken-care-of with two carports. Updated washer and dryer and plenty of space gives a modern feel with flexible options. Come by, see the amenities, imagine living with such space, and make the home your own! 55+ community, cash offers only, community application must be approved.

15. 2021-03-19
    price $55,000 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Pride of ownership and an in-demand 55+ community! Home is well-taken-care-of with two carports. Updated washer and dryer and plenty of space gives a modern feel with flexible options. Come by, see the amenities, imagine living with such space, and make the home your own! 55+ community, cash offers only, community application must be approved.

16. 2021-01-19
    price $60,000 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Pride of ownership and an in-demand 55+ community! Home is well-taken-care-of with two carports. Updated washer and dryer and plenty of space gives a modern feel with flexible options. Come by, see the amenities, imagine living with such space, and make the home your own! 55+ community, cash offers only, community application must be approved.

17. 2020-12-18
    historical

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Pride of ownership and an in-demand 55+ community! Home is well-taken-care-of with two carports. Updated washer and dryer and plenty of space gives a modern feel with flexible options. Come by, see the amenities, imagine living with such space, and make the home your own! 55+ community, cash offers only, community application must be approved.

18. 2020-12-18
    listed $65,000 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Pride of ownership and an in-demand 55+ community! Home is well-taken-care-of with two carports. Updated washer and dryer and plenty of space gives a modern feel with flexible options. Come by, see the amenities, imagine living with such space, and make the home your own! 55+ community, cash offers only, community application must be approved.

19. 2020-12-11
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − HOA: −$8,988
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$173
• After-tax cash flow: $394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, recently updated manufactured home is move-in ready with new kitchen and bathroom fixtures, fresh paint, and a new HVAC unit. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint — fresh paint improves aesthetics and value
• Both HVAC unit — new HVAC unit improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint — fresh paint improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both HVAC unit — new HVAC unit improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+38.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2021-07-15 Sold (MLS) $38,000 ARMLS
• 2021-05-31 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-04-16 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2021-03-26 Price Changed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2021-03-19 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2021-01-19 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2020-12-18 Listed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2020-12-18 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2020-12-11 Listed $65,000 MLSSAZ