355 Route 111 #6 · Smithtown, NY 11787

$249,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Condo · 40 Days on market

Built 1964

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sale may be subject to term & conditions of an offering plan. Upper 1 bedroom unit, hardwood floors, new windows, newer stainless steel appliances, roman blinds, new closet doors, new AC in bedroom, walk in closet. $50/month for parking not included in Maintenance dees, Additional information: Appearance:Mint

Key facts

• Entry hallway
• Laundry area
• Built 1964

Tags

• PLENTY OF CLOSET SPACE
• ENTRY HALLWAY
• LAUNDRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-666 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.9% in Smithtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#550 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Smithtown Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Smithtown Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 514 students, 14% FRL); Great Hollow Middle School (math 57% / reading 74%, grade A-, #119 of 729 statewide, top 16%, 828 students, 11% FRL); Smithtown High School-West (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,270 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.47%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-82,085
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-123,274
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11787

• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,696 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$1,075
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,539

Max offer price $152,584

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-494	-5% $-580	+0% $-666	+5% $-752	+10% $-838
Rent	-10% $-879	-5% $-773	+0% $-666	+5% $-560	+10% $-453
Rate	-1.0pp $-541	-0.5pp $-603	base $-666	+0.5pp $-731	+1.0pp $-796

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4248 Maple Ave Smithtown, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,995	$3.42	2d	1	1.20mi
433 Lincoln Blvd Unit 1-2L Hauppauge, NY	1.0	1.0	720	$2,650	$3.68	23d	1	1.24mi
109 E Main St Unit 2 Smithtown, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	44d	1	1.33mi
37 Elliott Pl Unit 375-B Smithtown, NY	1.0	1.0	585	$2,530	$4.32	44d	1	1.40mi
1710 Devonshire Rd Hauppauge, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	640	$2,780	$4.34	0d	18	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-13
   listed $249,000 Active
3. 2023-02-15
   soldstatus $200,000 Closed 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   Sale may be subject to term & conditions of an offering plan. Upper 1 bedroom unit, hardwood floors, new windows, newer stainless steel appliances, roman blinds, new closet doors, new AC in bedroom, walk in closet. $50/month for parking not included in Maintenance dees, Additional information: Appearance:Mint

4. 2022-12-08
   status Pending 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   Sale may be subject to term & conditions of an offering plan. Upper 1 bedroom unit, hardwood floors, new windows, newer stainless steel appliances, roman blinds, new closet doors, new AC in bedroom, walk in closet. $50/month for parking not included in Maintenance dees, Additional information: Appearance:Mint

5. 2022-11-18
   listed $199,990 Active 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   Sale may be subject to term & conditions of an offering plan. Upper 1 bedroom unit, hardwood floors, new windows, newer stainless steel appliances, roman blinds, new closet doors, new AC in bedroom, walk in closet. $50/month for parking not included in Maintenance dees, Additional information: Appearance:Mint

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,588
• − Management: −$2,588
• − HOA: −$12,900
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$11,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,856
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithtown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627060
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $110,009
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #473
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smithtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #9881

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithtown, NY
• City population: 34,656
• Population (ZIP): 34,656

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.62%
• Current HPI: 301.0617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+24.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-13 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-15 Sold (MLS) $200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-18 Listed $199,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid