3238 Elsberry Rd · Montgomery, AL 36116

$84,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1966 0.26 ac lot Est $113k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

Key facts

• Added den
• Laundry room
• Carport

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• ADDED DEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• CARPORT
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; One carport space; Three parking pads
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Brick construction; Slab foundation; Ridge vent roof
• Construction: Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Fully fenced yard; Level lot; City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range hood; Plumbed for ice maker; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Three first-floor bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Blinds; Insulated doors; Window treatments; Masonry fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Dedicated laundry room (first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 293 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $85k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,626 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.46%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,100
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3363 E Brookwood	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-7%)	2mo	$45,000	$33	68
2305 Elsmeade Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,356 (-6%)	10mo	$20,000	$15	68
3114 Woodley Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,419 (-2%)	6mo	$129,000	$91	66
2601 Brantford Pl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-7%)	12mo	$161,500	$120	51
3324 Windwood Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+8%)	22mo	$77,500	$49	48
3312 Brookwood Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+14%)	21mo	$125,000	$76	46
3012 Sutton Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,455 (+0%)	13mo	$120,000	$82	45
260 Smallbrook Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+10%)	3mo	$125,000	$78	44
3244 Cheltenham Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+13%)	12mo	$156,500	$96	35
2716 Baldwin Brook Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+13%)	9mo	$135,000	$82	30
2700 Forsyth Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+15%)	14mo	$65,000	$39	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $16,765
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $64,408
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36116

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,057/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $720

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2401 Overhill Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	999	$700	$0.70	21d	1	0.15mi
2230 Woodley Sq W Montgomery, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$898	$1.00	13d	11	0.33mi
2619 Brantford Pl Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,200	$0.91	43d	1	0.51mi
3252 Cheltenham Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1705	$1,200	$0.70	43d	1	0.53mi
2724 Forsyth Ln Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,400	$0.78	43d	1	0.71mi
3050 Sutton Dr Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	1719	$1,450	$0.84	21d	1	0.80mi
4581 Narrow Lane Rd Montgomery, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$800	$0.92	43d	2	0.83mi
1355 Buckingham Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1620	$1,650	$1.02	13d	1	0.89mi
2656 Fisk Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1584	$1,400	$0.88	43d	1	0.96mi
3633 Woodley Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1734	$1,600	$0.92	21d	1	1.00mi
1219 Biscayne Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.5	1228	$1,295	$1.05	21d	1	1.14mi
3324 Cross Creek Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1791	$1,395	$0.78	21d	1	1.14mi
1114 Druid Hills Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1192	$1,250	$1.05	21d	1	1.16mi
1067 Roslyn Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,125	$0.64	21d	1	1.30mi
2651 Clement Curv Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,550	$1.11	21d	1	1.30mi
3855 Woodley Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	43d	1	1.33mi
3770 Maclamar Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1129	$950	$0.84	21d	1	1.33mi
4342 Sunshine Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	13d	1	1.34mi
2440 Price St Unit C Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,050	$0.58	43d	1	1.34mi
915 Queensbury Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,500	$0.84	43d	1	1.35mi
4220 Strathmore Dr Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,099	$1.18	43d	1	1.35mi
3543 Carter Hill Rd Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1120	$925	$0.83	13d	16	1.35mi
2441 Price St Unit D Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1264	$900	$0.71	21d	1	1.36mi
2430 Price St Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.5	1275	$1,175	$0.92	13d	1	1.37mi
2699 Whispering Pine Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	13d	1	1.37mi
3212 Herbert Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,425	$1.21	21d	1	1.40mi
3388 McGehee Rd Unit B Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	900	$545	$0.61	21d	1	1.43mi
654 Mayflower Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1777	$1,400	$0.79	43d	1	1.45mi
3380 McGehee Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1000	$650	$0.65	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $84,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-25
    listed $99,000 Active
17. 2026-03-06
    price $119,900
18. 2026-02-03
    listed $129,000 Active
19. 2024-08-28
    historical $1,350
20. 2024-08-07
    listed $1,350
21. 2024-04-23
    historical $1,350
22. 2023-12-08
    listed $1,350
23. 2023-09-21
    soldstatus $50,000
24. 2023-09-15
    status Pending 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

25. 2023-09-15
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

26. 2023-07-11
    historical Contingent 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

27. 2023-06-30
    price $49,900 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

28. 2023-06-01
    price $52,000 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

29. 2023-05-22
    price $54,900 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

30. 2023-05-09
    status Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

31. 2023-05-08
    historical Contingent 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

32. 2023-05-03
    price $59,900 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

33. 2023-03-16
    listed $64,900 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath brick home, living room, added den w/ fireplace, and laundry room. Home also has a carport and a really large fenced backyard. Needs work but has new roof.

34. 2022-06-28
    soldstatus $61,637

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,057 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,057 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,057
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $3,973
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$953
• After-tax cash flow: $4,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 45,250
• Household income: $55,160
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2786.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 12% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.31%
• Current HPI: 151.8598
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+60.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $99,000 MAAR
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $119,900 MAAR
• 2026-02-03 Listed $129,000 MAAR
• 2024-08-28 Rental Removed $1,350 MAAR
• 2024-08-07 Listed for Rent $1,350 MAAR
• 2024-04-23 Rental Removed $1,350 MAAR
• 2023-12-08 Listed for Rent $1,350 MAAR
• 2023-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-15 Pending — MAAR
• 2023-09-15 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MAAR
• 2023-07-11 Contingent — MAAR
• 2023-06-30 Price Changed $49,900 MAAR
• 2023-06-01 Price Changed $52,000 MAAR
• 2023-05-22 Price Changed $54,900 MAAR
• 2023-05-09 Relisted — MAAR
• 2023-05-08 Contingent — MAAR
• 2023-05-03 Price Changed $59,900 MAAR
• 2023-03-16 Listed $64,900 MAAR
• 2022-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $61,637 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,057 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.