448 86th St S · Birmingham, AL 35206

$74,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1950 7,405 sqft lot Est $66k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming, move-in ready 3-bedroom bungalow in East Lake! Nestled on a quiet street just minutes from downtown Birmingham, this beautifully updated 1,053 sq ft, one-story home offers comfort and convenience. Inside you’ll find refinished hardwood floors, recessed lighting, and granite countertops throughout — plus a fully remodeled kitchen and bathroom. Major updates include, roof, hot water heater, electrical, plumbing, and cabinetry. The home sits on a generous 0.17-acre lot and provides easy off-street parking. With no HOA and all new systems in place, this home delivers value, style, and peace of mind — a rare find at this price point. Don’t miss out!

Key facts

• Remodeled bathroom
• New hot water heater
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robinson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #601 of 627 statewide, top 98%, 344 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.09%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,339
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
636 83rd Pl	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,062 (+1%)	8mo	$40,000	$38	76
732 S 84th St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-2%)	6mo	$65,000	$63	75
429 86th Pl S	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-11%)	2mo	$45,000	$48	72
518 84th St S	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	993 (-6%)	4mo	$45,500	$46	72
8609 10th Ave S	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-1%)	6mo	$134,900	$130	66
8229 Rugby Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	7mo	$46,000	$41	63
8313 3rd Ave S	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,195 (+14%)	2mo	$90,000	$75	60
8311 7th Ave S	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,143 (+8%)	8mo	$130,000	$114	56
8606 N 2nd Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,130 (+7%)	7mo	$95,100	$84	54
740 81st Pl S	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,137 (+8%)	1mo	$40,000	$35	50
8103 7th Ave S	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,158 (+10%)	10mo	$95,000	$82	47
8035 4th Ave S	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,096 (+4%)	8mo	$50,000	$46	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $9,100
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $31,609
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35206

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,206 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,293/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $757

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $376	+0% $355	+5% $333	+10% $312
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $307	+0% $355	+5% $402	+10% $450
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $374	base $355	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 87th St S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	890	$1,077	$1.21	44d	1	0.12mi
8513 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	44d	1	0.12mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,528	$1.39	44d	1	0.20mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	11d	1	0.20mi
624 83rd Pl S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	780	$975	$1.25	44d	1	0.31mi
636 83rd Pl S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,175	$1.11	44d	1	0.33mi
8211 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	966	$1,250	$1.29	44d	1	0.39mi
8242 Vassar Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1212	$1,100	$0.91	44d	1	0.44mi
8240 2nd Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	990	$875	$0.88	24d	1	0.46mi
8202 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,075	$0.91	44d	1	0.46mi
8416 Division Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,350	$0.92	44d	1	0.48mi
745 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,168	$0.97	3d	1	0.49mi
730 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,023	$1.14	4d	1	0.49mi
8122 Rugby Ave Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	44d	1	0.58mi
8108 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,200	$0.87	44d	1	0.58mi
8149 1st Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	44d	1	0.60mi
8129 2nd Ave S Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	0.60mi
8621 10th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	24d	1	0.61mi
8128 2nd Ave S Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1390	$1,150	$0.83	24d	1	0.61mi
8229 9th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	997	$1,195	$1.20	4d	1	0.61mi
731 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1221	$995	$0.81	11d	1	0.62mi
735 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,400	$1.14	24d	1	0.62mi
512 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,150	$0.99	44d	1	0.63mi
775 81st Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,095	$0.89	24d	1	0.63mi
514 81st St S Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1174	$1,295	$1.10	44d	1	0.63mi
8035 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,050	$0.96	44d	1	0.67mi
764 81st St S Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	44d	1	0.69mi
8917 Roebuck Blvd Apt 11 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$725	$0.82	17d	1	0.70mi
8013 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,150	$0.79	24d	1	0.74mi
768 80th Pl S Unit 1 Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,200	$1.06	44d	1	0.76mi
8021 1st Ave S Unit A Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	24d	1	0.77mi
7931 7th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	44d	1	0.77mi
8333 4th Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1384	$1,300	$0.94	44d	1	0.81mi
8300 4th Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1455	$1,300	$0.89	44d	1	0.87mi
7829 3rd Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1005	$1,025	$1.02	44d	1	0.90mi
7827 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1365	$850	$0.62	4d	1	0.91mi
832 79th Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	24d	1	0.92mi
7823 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,175	$1.15	44d	1	0.93mi
7815 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,650	$1.10	2d	1	0.93mi
7825 Rugby Ct Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	929	$875	$0.94	22d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-30
   soldstatus $71,500
2. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-12
   historical Contingent
4. 2025-12-03
   listed $74,900 Active
5. 2025-08-08
   price $94,900
6. 2025-01-05
   price $129,900
7. 2024-11-15
   price $135,900
8. 2024-11-09
   price $139,900
9. 2023-02-02
   price $148,000
10. 2023-01-18
    price $150,000
11. 2023-01-06
    price $155,000
12. 2022-11-01
    price $165,000
13. 2022-10-28
    price $155,000
14. 2022-10-09
    price $159,500
15. 2022-06-02
    soldstatus $83,250
16. 2022-06-01
    soldstatus $83,250
17. 2022-05-17
    soldstatus $70,000
18. 2022-05-12
    listed $83,250
19. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus $70,000
20. 2022-04-19
    listed $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,293 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,293 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,293
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,158
• − Management: −$1,158
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $3,318
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$796
• After-tax cash flow: $3,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,621
• Household income: $42,549
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1169.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.70%
• Current HPI: 146.2168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records
• 2026-01-26 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-12 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $74,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $94,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-01-05 Price Changed $129,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-11-15 Price Changed $135,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-11-09 Price Changed $139,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-02-02 Price Changed $148,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $150,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-01-06 Price Changed $155,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-11-01 Price Changed $165,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-10-28 Price Changed $155,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-10-09 Price Changed $159,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $83,250 Public Records
• 2022-06-01 Sold (MLS) $83,250 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-12 Listed $83,250 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-05-06 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-04-19 Listed $70,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,293 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.