2053 Carriage Dr SW Unit 2053H · Rochester, MN 55902

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Condo public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1974 $325/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This conveniently located 2 BR, 2 bath condo is a perfect choice if you're looking for one-level living with the convenience of main floor primary bedroom, in-unit laundry, and the warmth of a fireplace. Ready to move and offers plenty of storage in the unit, as well as a lockable storage area in the lower level. You'll appreciate the one-car garage located closeby, and access to Lake George with beach area, trails and picnic spaces. Located close to shopping, banking, and easy access to Hwy 52. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Beach area
• In unit laundry
• One level living

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• MAIN FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• IN UNIT LAUNDRY
• LOCKABLE STORAGE AREA
• ACCESS TO LAKE GEORGE
• BEACH AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 30 x 45 feet
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: HOA (Matik) with monthly fee of $325 covering beach access, hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, parking and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage space: 1-car garage
• Security:
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas fuel
• Home design: Attached residential property; Single-story (one level); Entry and living on main level
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Stone exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including a full primary bath)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living/dining room configuration; Living room with fireplace; Main-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.6% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bamber Valley Elementary (math 48% / reading 53%, grade D+, #412 of 857 statewide, top 48%, 633 students, 26% FRL); Willow Creek Middle (math 19% / reading 36%, grade F, #213 of 258 statewide, top 82%, 890 students, 45% FRL); Mayo Senior High (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C-, #104 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,862 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-17,831
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,947
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55902

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,296/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$325
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $184	+0% $141	+5% $99	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $66	+0% $141	+5% $216	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $179	base $141	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1909 5th St SW Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	1224	$1,495	$1.22	14d	1	1.33mi
204 18th St SW Unit 5 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.5	1036	$1,545	$1.49	22d	1	1.40mi
814 7th Ave SW Unit back Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	45d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $325 · $3,900/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 526-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $150,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,296 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,296 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,296
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
• − Management: −$1,831
• − HOA: −$3,900
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$117
• After-tax cash flow: $1,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 26,464
• Household income: $120,611
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 728.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.29%
• Current HPI: 252.3502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $150,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,296 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.