4550 N Flowing Wells Rd #155 · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition 840 sqft lot Est $134k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained 2 bed/2 bath home located in a gated 55 + community, New interior paint, new awnings, newer HVAC, New upgraded kitchen with upgraded countertop Reverse Osmosis system, farm sink, cabinets have been upgraded. Lots of light from a very large window, vinyl plank flooring and Stainless Steel stove, dishwasher and microwave, huge pantry with lots of storage, newer carpet, 2 large sheds for storage, exterior porch that runs the length of the home, Water, Garbage, Sewer, Property Taxes are included in the land rent, super quiet area, clubhouse, pool located close to shopping, buses, restaurants, do not miss out on this home,

Key facts

• Gated community
• Huge pantry
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• FARM SINK
• REVERSE OSMOSIS SYSTEM
• HUGE PANTRY
• LARGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: Tucson - MU
• HOA & community: Has association; Gated community with shared amenities (pool, spa, fitness center, shuffleboard, pickleball, lake)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered/carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home; One level; Faces north
• Construction: Metal roof; Kaufman and Broad model
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Paved road access; North/South exposure; Community pool and spa; Shuffleboard and pickleball courts; Fitness center; Gated community; Lake; Paved street

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans pre-wired
• Interior features: Reverse osmosis water filtration; Exhaust fan; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 6.1% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 180 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.93%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1257 W Garnette St	0.41mi	3/2.5 (+1)	841 (+0%)	1mo	$140,000	$166	73
1218 W Allegheny St	0.17mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	3mo	$195,000	$203	65
1537 W Wabash St	0.41mi	2/2.0	780 (-7%)	8mo	$150,000	$192	62
4761 N Brookline Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0	882 (+5%)	4mo	$209,900	$238	59
1358 W Mohawk Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	0mo	$115,000	$160	58
4611 N Camino Feliz	0.38mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	13mo	$125,000	$139	55
4737 N Kenwood Ct	0.58mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	4mo	$199,900	$255	54
620 W Limberlost Dr #18	0.70mi	2/2.0	780 (-7%)	3mo	$25,000	$32	53
850 W Limberlost Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	911 (+8%)	14mo	$118,000	$130	41
1741 W Wetmore Rd #34	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	720 (-14%)	0mo	$19,000	$26	41
1741 W Wetmore Rd #33	0.68mi	2/2.0	720 (-14%)	5mo	$16,000	$22	40
1741 W Wetmore Rd #23	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	720 (-14%)	8mo	$17,500	$24	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $13,573
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $35,902
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $487	-5% $463	+0% $439	+5% $415	+10% $391
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $393	+0% $439	+5% $485	+10% $531
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $457	base $439	+0.5pp $421	+1.0pp $403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1326 W Hadley St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	900	$725	$0.81	4d	1	0.32mi
4111 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1131	$1,625	$1.44	24d	3	0.52mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 7 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1026	$2,200	$2.14	21d	1	0.63mi
620 W Limberlost Dr Unit E24 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	672	$1,200	$1.79	24d	1	0.66mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-04 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	17d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-01 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	44d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-14 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	670	$895	$1.34	44d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	4d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1215-11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	0.68mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$1,084	$1.73	44d	4	0.72mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	686	$1,343	$1.96	45d	1	0.72mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,408	$1.50	44d	1	0.72mi
1501 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	44d	1	0.75mi
4213 N Romero Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,045	$1.27	44d	5	0.80mi
1865 W La Osa St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,450	$1.77	44d	1	0.81mi
3802 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	555	$1,100	$1.98	44d	5	0.87mi
1990 W Amy Pl Unit B Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$900	$1.50	21d	1	1.03mi
239 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	680	$795	$1.17	44d	1	1.08mi
822 W Thurber Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	44d	1	1.11mi
4190 N Western Winds Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	918	$1,349	$1.47	24d	1	1.12mi
4190 N Western Winds Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	918	$1,349	$1.47	44d	1	1.12mi
532 W Simmons Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	566	$1,000	$1.77	18d	1	1.13mi
115 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	24d	1	1.19mi
1700 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$1,099	$1.78	2d	25	1.19mi
557 W Thurber Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	44d	3	1.22mi
570 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$975	$1.24	44d	13	1.27mi
331 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,082	$1.27	12d	2	1.29mi
60 W Stone Loop Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	588	$1,395	$2.37	3d	46	1.31mi
520 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	557	$1,076	$1.93	4d	16	1.32mi
311 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	22d	1	1.33mi
1448 W Kilburn St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	44d	1	1.33mi
1925 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$1,856	$1.77	2d	32	1.33mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,075	$1.72	17d	21	1.36mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,280	$2.05	44d	1	1.36mi
3985 N Stone Ave Unit 248 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$979	$1.40	12d	1	1.37mi
124 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	650	$1,075	$1.65	4d	1	1.42mi
50 W King Rd Unit 09 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$775	$1.29	4d	1	1.49mi
50 W King Rd Apt 11 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	21d	1	1.49mi
269 E Calle Arizona Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,061
• After-tax cash flow: $4,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a gated 55+ community offers a good investment opportunity with upgrades and a good condition score.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value
• Both Upgrade lighting — Enhances ambiance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting — Enhances ambiance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $69,900 MLSSAZ