2651 Juniper St #1002 · Foley, AL 36535

$187,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · Condo public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2006 $158/sqft · 25% below area Est $253k · 26% under $375/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath condo in sought-after Victoria Place. Victoria Place is a gated community in Foley near OWA, the library, Tanger Outlet, grocery stores, restaurants, and a short drive to the white sandy beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. The roof and vinyl were replaced in 2021 and the condo was also fully re-plumbed in 2021 per seller.

Key facts

• Private patio
• Minutes from dining
• $375 HOA

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• PRIVATE PATIO
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Located on Juniper just behind Tanger Outlets
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $375; Association covers management, common area insurance, pest control, and trash; No transfer fee

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned single garage (1 covered space)
• Utilities: Electric service: Baldwin EMC
• Home design: Townhouse; Attached property; One level; Resale property; Condominium ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; No waterfront; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Convection oven
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: No fireplace; Covered patio/porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($371/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 44%, grade F, #323 of 627 statewide, top 52%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $187.31M (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,875 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,269
• List price: $187,500
• Delta: -25.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,588
• Equity at exit: $27,957

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,806
• Equity at exit: $16,212

Cash invested: $52,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 875
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$983
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,954

Max offer price $187,500

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,875
• Closing costs: $5,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2651 S Juniper St Foley, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1267	$2,200	$1.74	21d	3	0.03mi
2651 S Juniper St Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,925	$1.53	44d	2	0.03mi
458 Riviera Blvd Foley, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1123	$1,779	$1.58	13d	13	0.28mi
9815 James Rd Foley, AL	2.0–3.0	3.0	1350	$1,899	$1.41	21d	1	0.70mi
2800 Browning Way Foley, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,799	$1.90	13d	37	0.82mi
300 E Lawson Ave Foley, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1054	$1,510	$1.43	13d	1	0.95mi
3293 Straz Cir Foley, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$2,240	$1.98	13d	47	1.09mi
679 E Michigan Ave Foley, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,500	$1.57	44d	4	1.17mi
19364 Chelsey Dr Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,549	$1.14	21d	1	1.36mi
19362 Chelsey Dr Foley, AL	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,375	$1.25	21d	1	1.36mi
431 Hamilton Blvd Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,695	$1.25	21d	1	1.41mi
9921 Bethany Dr Foley, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,375	$1.27	13d	7	1.44mi
502 Meadow Ln Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $187,500 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,500 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,500 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,500 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $187,500 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,500 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $187,500 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,500 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $187,500 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $187,500 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $187,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $187,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $187,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $187,500 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $187,500 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $187,500 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $187,500 575-char remark
19. 2026-05-15
    listed $187,500,000 Active 575-char remark
20. 2025-05-06
    historical $1,550
21. 2025-05-01
    listed $1,550
22. 2025-04-30
    historical $1,550
23. 2025-04-22
    price $1,550
24. 2025-04-12
    price $1,600
25. 2025-03-13
    listed $1,650
26. 2024-08-21
    historical $1,650
27. 2024-08-21
    listed $1,650
28. 2024-05-01
    historical $1,650
29. 2024-04-10
    listed $1,650
30. 2024-04-10
    historical $1,650
31. 2024-03-13
    listed $1,650
32. 2022-02-03
    soldstatus $185,000
33. 2022-02-02
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath condo in sought-after Victoria Place. Victoria Place is a gated community in Foley near OWA, the library, Tanger Outlet, grocery stores, restaurants, and a short drive to the white sandy beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. The roof and vinyl were replaced in 2021 and the condo was also fully re-plumbed in 2021 per seller.

34. 2022-01-21
    status Pending 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath condo in sought-after Victoria Place. Victoria Place is a gated community in Foley near OWA, the library, Tanger Outlet, grocery stores, restaurants, and a short drive to the white sandy beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. The roof and vinyl were replaced in 2021 and the condo was also fully re-plumbed in 2021 per seller.

35. 2022-01-19
    price $185,500 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath condo in sought-after Victoria Place. Victoria Place is a gated community in Foley near OWA, the library, Tanger Outlet, grocery stores, restaurants, and a short drive to the white sandy beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. The roof and vinyl were replaced in 2021 and the condo was also fully re-plumbed in 2021 per seller.

36. 2022-01-18
    listed $185,000 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath condo in sought-after Victoria Place. Victoria Place is a gated community in Foley near OWA, the library, Tanger Outlet, grocery stores, restaurants, and a short drive to the white sandy beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. The roof and vinyl were replaced in 2021 and the condo was also fully re-plumbed in 2021 per seller.

37. 2018-01-18
    soldstatus $114,000
38. 2018-01-15
    soldstatus $114,000

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Great condo unit in the heart of Foley. Sought after Victoria Place complex is centrally located to The Tanger Outlet Mall, Wal-mart, OWA, restaurants and all that Foley has to offer. This 3 bedroom 2 bath 1185 sq ft unit is priced to sell. This unit offers tile through out main living area, screened in back porch, garage, outside storage, large laundry room and an open floor plan. Priced for a quick sell. ..

39. 2017-09-01
    listed $117,500

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Great condo unit in the heart of Foley. Sought after Victoria Place complex is centrally located to The Tanger Outlet Mall, Wal-mart, OWA, restaurants and all that Foley has to offer. This 3 bedroom 2 bath 1185 sq ft unit is priced to sell. This unit offers tile through out main living area, screened in back porch, garage, outside storage, large laundry room and an open floor plan. Priced for a quick sell. ..

40. 2012-10-22
    soldstatus $71,500
41. 2012-10-19
    soldstatus $71,500
42. 2012-07-06
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,503
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,455
• Taxable loss: −$2,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$622
• After-tax cash flow: $993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Foley, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $187,500 BCAR
• 2026-05-15 Listed $187,500,000 BCAR
• 2025-05-06 Rental Removed $1,550 SHOWMOJO2
• 2025-05-01 Listed for Rent $1,550 SHOWMOJO2
• 2025-04-30 Rental Removed $1,550 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $1,550 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $1,600 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-03-13 Listed for Rent $1,650 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-08-21 Rental Removed $1,650 BCAR
• 2024-08-21 Listed for Rent $1,650 BCAR
• 2024-05-01 Rental Removed $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Listed for Rent $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2022-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-02 Sold (MLS) $185,000 BCAR
• 2022-01-21 Pending — BCAR
• 2022-01-19 Price Changed $185,500 BCAR
• 2022-01-18 Listed $185,000 BCAR
• 2018-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-15 Sold (MLS) $114,000 BCAR
• 2017-09-01 Listed $117,500 BCAR
• 2012-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records
• 2012-10-19 Sold (MLS) $71,500 BCAR
• 2012-07-06 Listed $75,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,290 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.