8 Fourth Ave · Whitehall, NY 12887

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 565 Days on market

Built 1920 8,712 sqft lot Est $165k · 48% under ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming Home with 3 bedrooms on the first floor, a Spiral Staircase leading up to the second floor/ attic with one large bedroom, that has 2 nice size closets and 2 sets of built-in dressers on each side of the room, this room could very easily be made into 2 separate bedrooms. Hardwoods flooring, tilt-in windows plus lots of storage! The Country Kitchen, Dining Room, and Cozy Living room reminds me of Grandma's! A Lovely Screened Front Porch offers a great place to make new memories! 66 x 132 corner lot. Whitehall boarders Vermont, close to the ski slopes and is located at the southern end of Lake Champlain, Minutes to Lake George Beach at Huletts Landing & many hiking trails, 30 m

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,103 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Whitehall Central School District (rural): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #530 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whitehall Elementary School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 353 students, 63% FRL); Whitehall Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #912 of 1,100 statewide, top 85%, 320 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 565 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 565 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.32%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,736
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Seventh Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	16mo	$169,700	$161	80
11 Gilmore St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,181 (+12%)	2mo	$63,000	$53	51
61 Poultney St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	956 (-10%)	22mo	$149,000	$156	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $59,428
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.93×
• Total profit: $164,939
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12887

• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,770/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2023-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2023-02-23
   historical Contingent
3. 2023-02-21
   status Active
4. 2023-02-12
   historical
5. 2022-08-15
   status Active
6. 2022-08-10
   historical
7. 2022-03-15
   status Active
8. 2022-03-15
   historical
9. 2022-03-11
   price $85,000
10. 2022-03-03
    historical Contingent
11. 2022-02-16
    price $89,900
12. 2021-12-01
    price $99,900
13. 2021-11-17
    price $120,000
14. 2021-11-04
    price $122,500
15. 2021-10-15
    price $125,000
16. 2021-10-08
    price $130,000
17. 2021-09-09
    listed $140,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,770
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$304
• After-tax cash flow: $2,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitehall Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631290
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,563
• Composite: 33.4/100
• National rank: #5477
• State rank: #530 of 590 in NY

Livability — Whitehall

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1103
• US rank: #22538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Whitehall, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,629

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,576 people
• By 2030: 57,618 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 52,751 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 47,514 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 35,690 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 24,807 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Polish 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+20.2 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 122.64%
• Current HPI: 354.5975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-39.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2023-04-11 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-02-23 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2023-02-21 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2023-02-12 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-08-15 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2022-08-10 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-03-15 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2022-03-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-03-11 Price Changed $85,000 Global MLS
• 2022-03-03 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2022-02-16 Price Changed $89,900 Global MLS
• 2021-12-01 Price Changed $99,900 Global MLS
• 2021-11-17 Price Changed $120,000 Global MLS
• 2021-11-04 Price Changed $122,500 Global MLS
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $125,000 Global MLS
• 2021-10-08 Price Changed $130,000 Global MLS
• 2021-09-09 Listed $140,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,770 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.