2121 E Avenue I #28 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$180,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 217 Days on market

Built 2003 Est $157k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover comfortable living in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home nestled in a welcoming family-oriented park. This move-in ready home offers the perfect blend of modern updates and cozy charm with updated flooring throughout. The heart of the home features a spacious kitchen with plenty of room for cooking and entertaining, flowing seamlessly into the inviting living room complete with a warm fireplace. The generous primary bedroom features an attached nook for an additional space with an on suite bathroom featuring a luxurious jacuzzi tub. Two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Practical amenities include ample parking with

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Inviting living room
• On suite bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• INVITING LIVING ROOM
• WARM FIREPLACE
• ON SUITE BATHROOM
• JACUZZI TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Eastside Union Elementary (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,226 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,699/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.86%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2121 E Avenue I #28	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	1mo	$175,000	$125	93
2121 E Avenue I #64	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	7mo	$168,500	$125	82
2121 E Avenue I #17	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	9mo	$155,000	$115	80
2550 E East Avenue I #42	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+0%)	8mo	$117,150	$80	72
2545 E Avenue I #66	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	8mo	$155,000	$108	72
2550 East Ave I	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+0%)	8mo	$117,150	$80	71
2550 E Avenue I #110	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	6mo	$123,050	$85	66
2550 E Avenue I Space 29	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-6%)	6mo	$119,000	$87	64
1501 E Avenue I #135	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	7mo	$155,000	$108	62
2545 E Avenue I #14	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	8mo	$140,000	$104	61
45465 25th St E #11	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	0mo	$184,000	$147	56
45465 25th St E #28	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	7mo	$162,000	$130	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $29,813
• Equity at exit: $26,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $82,308
• Equity at exit: $15,606

Cash invested: $50,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,699 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$947
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $1,047

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $180,500

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,125
• Closing costs: $5,415
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,500	$2.55	24d	1	0.32mi
45465 25th St E Spc 10 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$825	$0.49	3d	1	0.34mi
2634 Avoca St Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	1722	$3,200	$1.86	1d	1	0.58mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	1d	1	0.63mi
1734 Lightcap St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,700	$1.84	1d	1	0.70mi
44707 Cerisa St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1714	$3,000	$1.75	10d	1	0.84mi
44709 26th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,300	$1.75	18d	1	0.88mi
1628 Cactus Dr Apt B Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,999	$2.00	1d	1	1.05mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,875	$1.88	2d	1	1.05mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	22d	1	1.05mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,050	$1.93	1d	1	1.10mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,150	$2.02	24d	1	1.10mi
1827 East Avenue J Unit 2 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,850	$1.76	17d	1	1.13mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	15d	1	1.15mi
2624 Via Verona Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.5	1563	$2,900	$1.86	1d	1	1.17mi
44436 15th St E Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$2,024	$1.92	1d	1	1.22mi
1253 Morven St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,995	$1.65	15d	1	1.24mi
2500 Topaz Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,800	$2.20	24d	1	1.28mi
44236 20th St E Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	900	$1,712	$1.90	1d	1	1.32mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	22d	1	1.32mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	4d	1	1.32mi
1004 E Newgrove St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,800	$2.41	1d	1	1.37mi
1743 , CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,134	$2.28	1d	17	1.41mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-20
   price $180,500
3. 2025-09-23
   price $184,900
4. 2025-08-23
   listed $189,900 Active
5. 2015-03-27
   historical
6. 2012-11-08
   listed $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$605/yr (+$50/mo · 78.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,111
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$902
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,591
• − Management: −$2,591
• − Depreciation: −$5,251
• Taxable income: $10,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,443
• After-tax cash flow: $10,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0611910
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,840
• Composite: 21.43/100
• National rank: #13636
• State rank: #1226 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+276.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — AVMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $180,500 AVMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $184,900 AVMLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $189,900 AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2012-11-08 Listed $48,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.