809 Middle St · Fulton, MO 65251

$42,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1955 7,200 sqft lot $62/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors or first time home buyers! Come see this affordable house in the heart of Fulton

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 111 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($770 rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.9% in Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#115 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Fulton 58 (town): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #158 of 324 in MO (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bush Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 370 students, 44% FRL); Fulton Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #231 of 391 statewide, top 60%, 498 students, 39% FRL); Fulton Sr. High (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 678 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40 units permitted in Callaway County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,220 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.63%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,706
• List price: $42,000
• Delta: -62.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $13,568
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $38,079
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65251

• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $607/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$162
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $365

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $332	+0% $320	+5% $308	+10% $296
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $289	+0% $320	+5% $350	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $330	base $320	+0.5pp $309	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 E 5th St Fulton, MO	2.0	1.0	570	$750	$1.32	45d	1	0.61mi
1016 N Bluff St Apt A Fulton, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$625	$1.14	15d	1	0.62mi
808 Center St Fulton, MO	1.0	1.0	525	$600	$1.14	15d	1	0.63mi
603 Court St Fulton, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$740	$1.23	15d	1	0.81mi
103 E 3rd St Fulton, MO	1.0	1.0	350	$605	$1.73	23d	1	0.86mi
13 W 5th St Apt B Fulton, MO	2.0	1.0	660	$875	$1.33	23d	1	0.87mi
1514 Monroe St Fulton, MO	2.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	15d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $42,000 Pending 111 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $42,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $42,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-02-26
   price $45,000 102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (102 chars)

   Calling all investors or first time home buyers! Come see this affordable house in the heart of Fulton

5. 2026-02-10
   listed $65,000 Active 102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (102 chars)

   Calling all investors or first time home buyers! Come see this affordable house in the heart of Fulton

6. 2024-03-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$607
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$739
• − Management: −$739
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $3,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$808
• After-tax cash flow: $3,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton 58
• NCES district ID: 2912550
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,431
• Composite: 33.31/100
• National rank: #5504
• State rank: #158 of 324 in MO

Livability — Fulton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #7204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulton, MO
• County: Callaway County · 22,579 people
• City population: 22,579
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• Population (ZIP): 22,579
• Household income: $63,072
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Callaway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,390 people
• By 2030: 45,493 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 45,092 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 44,069 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 41,875 · -7.7%
• By 2100: 38,094 · -16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Callaway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.6% · R 70.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+42.3 2016: R+42.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.33%
• Current HPI: 205.5205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $45,000 CBORMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $65,000 CBORMLS
• 2024-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $607 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.