620 W Limberlost Dr #9 · Tucson, AZ 85705

$18,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 1984 1,500 sqft lot $28/sqft · 26% below area Est $25k · 26% under $625/mo HOA · 60% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated Palm Harbor Home in 55+ Parkway Vista | Huge Lot | $513 Lot Rent | No Rear Neighbors Affordable, move-in ready home with inexpensive lot rent only $625/month! Enjoy a big yard, huge deck, covered carport, storage shed, and no rear neighbors with beautiful mountain views. The home features new stainless steel appliances, new flooring, and new mini-split systems for efficient heating and cooling. Community amenities include a clubhouse for family gatherings and events, pool table, and convenient onsite laundry. Excellent location right off Oracle Rd -- just a 2-minute drive to Tucson Mall and close to restaurants and shopping.

Key facts

• Big yard
• No rear neighbors
• Covered carport

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• BIG YARD
• HUGE DECK
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $18,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$25,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($811/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $128 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $555 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 60% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,835 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.65%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $25,000
• List price: $18,500
• Delta: -26.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3833 N Fairview Ave #127	0.64mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (+7%)	4mo	$11,000	$15	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-1,042
• Equity at exit: $2,758

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-4,423
• Equity at exit: $1,600

Cash invested: $5,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$97
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$625
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $953

Max offer price $18,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,625
• Closing costs: $555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
620 W Limberlost Dr Unit E24 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	672	$1,200	$1.79	23d	1	0.03mi
239 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	680	$795	$1.17	43d	1	0.40mi
115 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	23d	1	0.52mi
1089 W Schafer Dr Unit 4 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	350	$750	$2.14	21d	1	0.52mi
532 W Simmons Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	566	$1,000	$1.77	17d	1	0.59mi
30 E Camino Villas Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	440	$753	$1.71	21d	1	0.62mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-14 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	670	$895	$1.34	43d	1	0.67mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,075	$1.72	16d	21	0.69mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,280	$2.05	43d	1	0.69mi
3985 N Stone Ave Unit 251 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$695	$1.39	11d	1	0.69mi
3985 N Stone Ave Unit 248 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$979	$1.40	11d	1	0.69mi
311 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	21d	1	0.70mi
822 W Thurber Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	43d	1	0.72mi
3700 N Fairview Ave Unit 104 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	444	$949	$2.14	3d	1	0.74mi
124 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	650	$1,075	$1.65	3d	1	0.76mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$1,084	$1.73	43d	4	0.78mi
570 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$975	$1.24	43d	13	0.79mi
520 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	557	$1,076	$1.93	3d	16	0.80mi
50 W King Rd Unit 09 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$775	$1.29	3d	1	0.84mi
50 W King Rd Apt 11 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	19d	1	0.84mi
3802 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	555	$1,100	$1.98	43d	5	0.88mi
120 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	480	$702	$1.46	3d	2	0.91mi
402 E Limberlost Dr Unit 106 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	528	$785	$1.49	43d	1	0.98mi
402 E Limberlost Dr Unit 202 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	676	$1,025	$1.52	43d	1	0.98mi
402 E Limberlost Dr Apt 108 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	676	$895	$1.32	3d	1	0.98mi
402 E Limberlost Dr Unit 207 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	676	$925	$1.37	23d	1	1.00mi
95 W Windsor St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$965	$1.38	43d	1	1.06mi
208 E Prince Rd Unit POP1101 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	391	$725	$1.85	23d	1	1.12mi
4225 N 1st Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$1,294	$1.91	2d	40	1.16mi
60 W Stone Loop Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	588	$1,395	$2.37	2d	46	1.17mi
3450 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	706	$1,275	$1.81	11d	7	1.20mi
3450 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	651	$850	$1.31	43d	1	1.20mi
446 E Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	3d	2	1.22mi
3450 N Stone Ave Apt 215 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	651	$1,091	$1.68	43d	1	1.22mi
3525 N Fontana Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	43d	1	1.22mi
326 E Prince Rd Unit 01 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	530	$995	$1.88	23d	1	1.24mi
405 E Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	588	$1,399	$2.38	43d	12	1.25mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	686	$1,343	$1.96	44d	1	1.27mi
730 E Limberlost Dr Unit HA730-116 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	425	$825	$1.94	43d	1	1.30mi
730 E Limberlost Dr Unit HA730-111B Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	400	$799	$2.00	20d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $625 · $7,500/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $18,500 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $18,500 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $18,500 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $18,500 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $18,500 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $18,500 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $18,500 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $18,500 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $18,500 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $18,500 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $18,500 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $18,500 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $18,500 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $18,500 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    listed $18,500 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Updated Palm Harbor Home in 55+ Parkway Vista | Huge Lot | $513 Lot Rent | No Rear Neighbors Affordable, move-in ready home with inexpensive lot rent only $625/month! Enjoy a big yard, huge deck, covered carport, storage shed, and no rear neighbors with beautiful mountain views. The home features new stainless steel appliances, new flooring, and new mini-split systems for efficient heating and cooling. Community amenities include a clubhouse for family gatherings and events, pool table, and convenient onsite laundry. Excellent location right off Oracle Rd -- just a 2-minute drive to Tucson Mall and close to restaurants and shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,036
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$92
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$997
• − Management: −$997
• − HOA: −$7,500
• − Depreciation: −$538
• Taxable income: $1,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$246
• After-tax cash flow: $565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $18,500 MLSSAZ