15932 Blass Valley Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$264,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 5,750 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in Ready in June. This thoughtfully designed single-story Beeville plan home by Centex features a charming brick-and-stone exterior with warm, modern tones. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept layout with luxury vinyl plank flooring, a bright white kitchen with shaker-style cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, nice size Island, and sleek modern fixtures. The neutral color palette creates a light, airy feel throughout the home. Both bathrooms feature upgraded finishes and full tile surrounds, adding a polished touch. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio — perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. With smart home features included and stylish upgrades throughout,

Key facts

• Bright white kitchen
• Open concept layout
• 5,750 sq ft lot

Tags

• BRICK AND STONE EXTERIOR
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• BRIGHT WHITE KITCHEN
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Inframark; Annual association fee of $961; Community pool; Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); East-facing; Single-story entry (living area 1,580)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Centex
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Back yard fence; Sprinkler/irrigation; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Tub/shower; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: HVAC energy-efficient system

🏗️ New construction. The $264,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $283,430.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,107 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,430
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -6.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15965 Blass Valley Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	2mo	$273,480	$181	85
16153 Sepia Manor St	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+4%)	3mo	$264,810	$161	81
15039 Rustic Moon Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-5%)	1mo	$259,790	$174	76
15023 Rustic Moon Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-5%)	1mo	$287,340	$192	76
16702 Sterling Cliff St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-1%)	3mo	$281,690	$179	76
15373 Dapple Bluff Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (+4%)	3mo	$289,495	$176	76
14989 Rustic Moon Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-5%)	2mo	$259,710	$172	74
15996 Blass Valley Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,777 (+12%)	0mo	$279,680	$157	70
15980 Blass Valley Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,777 (+12%)	2mo	$274,790	$155	68
16280 Sun View Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (-2%)	2mo	$200,000	$129	67
14985 Rustic Moon Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+7%)	1mo	$264,050	$156	66
16686 Sterling Cliff St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-11%)	2mo	$242,090	$172	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-65,291
• Equity at exit: $42,260

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-79,684
• Equity at exit: $24,506

Cash invested: $79,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,486
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$354 /mo · $4,251/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $237,751

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-218	+0% $-316	+5% $-414	+10% $-512
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-402	+0% $-316	+5% $-230	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-173	-0.5pp $-244	base $-316	+0.5pp $-389	+1.0pp $-464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,858
• Closing costs: $8,503
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	44d	1	0.65mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	25d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,990 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,990 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,990 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,990 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,990 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $264,990 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,770 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,770 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $281,770 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,770 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,770 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,770 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,770 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,770 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $281,770 Active 781-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,876
• − Property taxes: −$4,251
• − Insurance: −$1,417
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,245
• Taxable loss: −$8,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,104
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The home requires extensive repairs, particularly to the exterior walls, and has significant deferred maintenance. Immediate attention to these issues is crucial to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior walls — Severe mold and mildew on exterior walls, indicating significant water damage or poor ventilation.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior cleaning and mold remediation — Cleaning and remediation will improve the home's appearance and address a major health concern.
• Both Landscaping trimming — Trimming will enhance curb appeal and make the home more inviting.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior walls · Severe mold and mildew on exterior walls, indicating significant water damage or poor ventilation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior cleaning and mold remediation — Cleaning and remediation will improve the home's appearance and address a major health concern. ↑
• Both Landscaping trimming — Trimming will enhance curb appeal and make the home more inviting. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $281,770 HARMLS