705 11th St · Shallowater, TX 79363

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1961 8,160 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sometimes the best investment you can make is the one nobody else has touched yet. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Shallowater is sitting on a generous lot with a detached garage, large backyard, and storage shed — solid space and functionality that are hard to come by at this price point. Under 1,300 square feet means low overhead and high potential. Priced honestly to reflect current condition, this home is ready for the buyer who has vision, style, and the drive to turn smart updates into serious equity. Whether you're an investor eyeing your next project, a handy homeowner ready to put your personal stamp on something, or simply someone who refuses to pay top dollar for someone else's renovation, this is your opportunity. Nestled in the welcoming community of Shallowater, TX, this home offers small town charm with quick and easy access to Lubbock and everything the South Plains has to offer.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Large backyard
• Storage shed

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• GENEROUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,026 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.04%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $90,383
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.11×
• Total profit: $248,610
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,645/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,068

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1405 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,525	$1.17	13d	1	0.77mi
1407 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,500	$1.15	21d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 917-char remark

   Show marketing remark (917 chars)

   Sometimes the best investment you can make is the one nobody else has touched yet. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Shallowater is sitting on a generous lot with a detached garage, large backyard, and storage shed — solid space and functionality that are hard to come by at this price point. Under 1,300 square feet means low overhead and high potential. Priced honestly to reflect current condition, this home is ready for the buyer who has vision, style, and the drive to turn smart updates into serious equity. Whether you're an investor eyeing your next project, a handy homeowner ready to put your personal stamp on something, or simply someone who refuses to pay top dollar for someone else's renovation, this is your opportunity. Nestled in the welcoming community of Shallowater, TX, this home offers small town charm with quick and easy access to Lubbock and everything the South Plains has to offer.

2. 2026-04-18
   listed $124,900 Active 917-char remark

   Show marketing remark (917 chars)

   Sometimes the best investment you can make is the one nobody else has touched yet. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Shallowater is sitting on a generous lot with a detached garage, large backyard, and storage shed — solid space and functionality that are hard to come by at this price point. Under 1,300 square feet means low overhead and high potential. Priced honestly to reflect current condition, this home is ready for the buyer who has vision, style, and the drive to turn smart updates into serious equity. Whether you're an investor eyeing your next project, a handy homeowner ready to put your personal stamp on something, or simply someone who refuses to pay top dollar for someone else's renovation, this is your opportunity. Nestled in the welcoming community of Shallowater, TX, this home offers small town charm with quick and easy access to Lubbock and everything the South Plains has to offer.

3. 2017-11-07
   soldstatus
4. 1981-08-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$641/yr (+$53/mo · 39.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,645
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $2,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$564
• After-tax cash flow: $3,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shallowater, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $124,900 LARMLS
• 2017-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,645 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.