879 E Lancaster Cir · Florence, AZ 85132

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 551 sqft · Condo public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1982 $172/sqft · 20% below area Est $119k · 20% under $146/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 bedroom 1 bath condo with mountain view! This is a short sale and the property needs some love. However, with the right buyer, this home can really be something special.

Key facts

• $146 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.2% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,533
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -19.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-2,842
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $8,385
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $331/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$146
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $900

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $255	+0% $228	+5% $201	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $134	-5% $181	+0% $228	+5% $275	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $276	-0.5pp $252	base $228	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3722 N South Dakota Ave Florence, AZ	1.0	1.0	721	$1,100	$1.53	44d	1	0.52mi
125 E Gila Dr Florence, AZ	1.0	1.0	400	$900	$2.25	44d	1	0.87mi
216 E Ocotillo Dr Florence, AZ	1.0	1.0	385	$950	$2.47	25d	1	0.92mi
215 E Palo Verde Ln Florence, AZ	1.0	1.0	421	$1,300	$3.09	44d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $146 · $1,752/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $95,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    1 bedroom 1 bath condo with mountain view! This is a short sale and the property needs some love. However, with the right buyer, this home can really be something special.

16. 2026-03-25
    listed $110,000 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    1 bedroom 1 bath condo with mountain view! This is a short sale and the property needs some love. However, with the right buyer, this home can really be something special.

17. 2024-06-25
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed 759-char remark

    Show marketing remark (759 chars)

    FURNISHED/TURNKEY CASITA HERMOSA one bedroom!! Find YOUR PLACE in the sun for active adults! This WELL PRICED, charming one bedroom/one bath townhome is perfect for those that want to retire in style, simplify life & partake in all the activities to stay young! CASITA HERMOSA HOA offers golf, heated pool, clubhouse, pickleball and MORE......all for $133/month! Just bring your bags & toothbrush, this furnished home is ready to go!! This townhome has it all......plush berber carpet, gas stove, water softener, washer & dryer, guest door to bathroom! Now is the time to buy, this well sought after townhome! Limit for rentals in Casita Hermosa is 5 and those are already taken at this time. This property is available for OWNER occupancy.

18. 2024-06-25
    soldstatus $130,000

    Show marketing remark (759 chars)

    FURNISHED/TURNKEY CASITA HERMOSA one bedroom!! Find YOUR PLACE in the sun for active adults! This WELL PRICED, charming one bedroom/one bath townhome is perfect for those that want to retire in style, simplify life & partake in all the activities to stay young! CASITA HERMOSA HOA offers golf, heated pool, clubhouse, pickleball and MORE......all for $133/month! Just bring your bags & toothbrush, this furnished home is ready to go!! This townhome has it all......plush berber carpet, gas stove, water softener, washer & dryer, guest door to bathroom! Now is the time to buy, this well sought after townhome! Limit for rentals in Casita Hermosa is 5 and those are already taken at this time. This property is available for OWNER occupancy.

19. 2024-06-20
    status Pending 759-char remark

    Show marketing remark (759 chars)

    FURNISHED/TURNKEY CASITA HERMOSA one bedroom!! Find YOUR PLACE in the sun for active adults! This WELL PRICED, charming one bedroom/one bath townhome is perfect for those that want to retire in style, simplify life & partake in all the activities to stay young! CASITA HERMOSA HOA offers golf, heated pool, clubhouse, pickleball and MORE......all for $133/month! Just bring your bags & toothbrush, this furnished home is ready to go!! This townhome has it all......plush berber carpet, gas stove, water softener, washer & dryer, guest door to bathroom! Now is the time to buy, this well sought after townhome! Limit for rentals in Casita Hermosa is 5 and those are already taken at this time. This property is available for OWNER occupancy.

20. 2024-06-02
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 759-char remark

    Show marketing remark (759 chars)

    FURNISHED/TURNKEY CASITA HERMOSA one bedroom!! Find YOUR PLACE in the sun for active adults! This WELL PRICED, charming one bedroom/one bath townhome is perfect for those that want to retire in style, simplify life & partake in all the activities to stay young! CASITA HERMOSA HOA offers golf, heated pool, clubhouse, pickleball and MORE......all for $133/month! Just bring your bags & toothbrush, this furnished home is ready to go!! This townhome has it all......plush berber carpet, gas stove, water softener, washer & dryer, guest door to bathroom! Now is the time to buy, this well sought after townhome! Limit for rentals in Casita Hermosa is 5 and those are already taken at this time. This property is available for OWNER occupancy.

21. 2024-04-13
    status Active 759-char remark

    Show marketing remark (759 chars)

    FURNISHED/TURNKEY CASITA HERMOSA one bedroom!! Find YOUR PLACE in the sun for active adults! This WELL PRICED, charming one bedroom/one bath townhome is perfect for those that want to retire in style, simplify life & partake in all the activities to stay young! CASITA HERMOSA HOA offers golf, heated pool, clubhouse, pickleball and MORE......all for $133/month! Just bring your bags & toothbrush, this furnished home is ready to go!! This townhome has it all......plush berber carpet, gas stove, water softener, washer & dryer, guest door to bathroom! Now is the time to buy, this well sought after townhome! Limit for rentals in Casita Hermosa is 5 and those are already taken at this time. This property is available for OWNER occupancy.

22. 2024-04-01
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 759-char remark

    Show marketing remark (759 chars)

    FURNISHED/TURNKEY CASITA HERMOSA one bedroom!! Find YOUR PLACE in the sun for active adults! This WELL PRICED, charming one bedroom/one bath townhome is perfect for those that want to retire in style, simplify life & partake in all the activities to stay young! CASITA HERMOSA HOA offers golf, heated pool, clubhouse, pickleball and MORE......all for $133/month! Just bring your bags & toothbrush, this furnished home is ready to go!! This townhome has it all......plush berber carpet, gas stove, water softener, washer & dryer, guest door to bathroom! Now is the time to buy, this well sought after townhome! Limit for rentals in Casita Hermosa is 5 and those are already taken at this time. This property is available for OWNER occupancy.

23. 2024-03-23
    listed $126,500 Active 759-char remark

    Show marketing remark (759 chars)

    FURNISHED/TURNKEY CASITA HERMOSA one bedroom!! Find YOUR PLACE in the sun for active adults! This WELL PRICED, charming one bedroom/one bath townhome is perfect for those that want to retire in style, simplify life & partake in all the activities to stay young! CASITA HERMOSA HOA offers golf, heated pool, clubhouse, pickleball and MORE......all for $133/month! Just bring your bags & toothbrush, this furnished home is ready to go!! This townhome has it all......plush berber carpet, gas stove, water softener, washer & dryer, guest door to bathroom! Now is the time to buy, this well sought after townhome! Limit for rentals in Casita Hermosa is 5 and those are already taken at this time. This property is available for OWNER occupancy.

24. 1990-11-16
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 89.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$331
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − HOA: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$323
• After-tax cash flow: $2,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+295.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-25 Sold (MLS) $130,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-06-02 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-04-13 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-04-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-03-23 Listed $126,500 ARMLS
• 1990-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $331 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.