166 Old Helton School Rd · Lansing, NC 28643

$79,900

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1890 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FIXER UPPER for SALE in the Helton Creek area of Lansing, NC! CASH ONLY - no mortgages. Needs a lot of work - it flooded with Hurricane Helene, washed out the right side of the foundation and approximately 1.5-2 feet of water entered the home. County Zoning office confirmed it can be repaired, no special regulations since it is NOT located in the 100 year flood plain. Built around 1890, has a well and septic. Metal roof installed around 6 years ago per previous owner. Approximately . 75 acre lot. Great location - Helton Creek across the street, stocked with trout, walk to the convenience store & grill within seconds, playground/community center next door, & great access to 194 N

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1890
• Listed 162 days

Tags

• METAL ROOF IS IN GOOD SHAPE
• APPROXIMATELY .75 ACRE LOT
• WALK TO THE CONVENIENCE STORE
• GREAT ACCESS TO 194 N

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Two open parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system installed
• Home design: Single family residence; Site-built home; Two levels
• Construction: Metal roof; Construction materials: other (see remarks); Foundation: crawl space with pillar/post/pier and other (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Creek frontage; Level lot; Road surfaces: dirt, gravel, and paved; Publicly maintained road; Outbuilding on property

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances reported
• Bedrooms: Six bedrooms (4 upstairs, 2 on main level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Attic (other); 10 total rooms; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: other (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 1.7% in Lansing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#514 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ashe County Schools (rural): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #53 of 178 in NC (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Ashe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashe County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.57%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $25,070
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $70,821
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28643

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $237/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $79,900
17. 2026-03-27
    price $85,000
18. 2026-01-28
    price $89,500
19. 2026-01-07
    listed $94,500 Active
20. 2010-05-11
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $237 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$418/yr (+$35/mo · 176.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$237
• − Insurance: −$1,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $6,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,500
• After-tax cash flow: $5,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashe County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700210
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 44.82/100
• National rank: #2737
• State rank: #53 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lansing

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #514
• US rank: #18836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,241

Population outlook (Ashe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,812 people
• By 2030: 24,852 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 22,518 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 20,113 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 15,295 · -40.7%
• By 2100: 11,065 · -57.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.5) · D 27.4% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.5 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+44.7 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.76%
• Current HPI: 176.971
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $79,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $85,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $89,500 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $94,500 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $237 · -40.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.