86816 E Vieros St · Mammoth, AZ 85618

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1968 0.74 ac lot $38/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Major fixup, large lot, has pool well, septic, fence, entrance via 60' access on east side of 86810 E Vieros St. Stone and stucco exterior walls , wall has hole for wood stove. Large metal bldg could be used for animals. Has well (well no. 649742 80' deep), pool.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Has pool
• Fence

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• HAS POOL
• FENCE
• STONE AND STUCCO EXTERIOR
• LARGE METAL BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($853 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#186 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mammoth-San Manuel Unified District (4439) (rural): math 34% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #262 of 501 in AZ (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.00%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,074
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -61.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $30,980
• Equity at exit: $17,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $73,641
• Equity at exit: $27,718

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85618

• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $441/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $333

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 AZ-77 Mammoth, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$853	$1.07	1d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-02-15
    listed $40,000 Active 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Major fixup, large lot, has pool well, septic, fence, entrance via 60' access on east side of 86810 E Vieros St. Stone and stucco exterior walls , wall has hole for wood stove. Large metal bldg could be used for animals. Has well (well no. 649742 80' deep), pool.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$441
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$819
• − Management: −$819
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,093
• After-tax cash flow: $3,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mammoth-San Manuel Unified District (4439)
• NCES district ID: 0404570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,112
• Composite: 30.46/100
• National rank: #11500
• State rank: #262 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Mammoth

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #19449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,347

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 30% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-15 Listed $40,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $441 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.