39517 Cline Miller Pl · Big Bear Lake, CA 92333

$799,900

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2019 0.38 ac lot $382/sqft · 29% above area Est $622k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning Mountain Retreat with Panoramic Forest and Lake Views in Fawnskin, CA Nestled in the heart of the San Bernardino Mountains, this gorgeous 2019-built home offers breathtaking mountain and lake views that will captivate you from the moment you arrive. Wake up to spectacular sunrises over the water and enjoy mesmerizing star-filled night skies that only a mountain setting can provide. The rear of the home features an expansive Trex deck with elegant wrought iron railings, perfectly positioned for enjoying your morning coffee while taking in the lake views. Surrounded by lush national forest, this private oasis feels like a true escape yet is conveniently located in desirable Fawnskin. Inside, the home shows like new with premium finishes throughout. Karndeen flooring flows seamlessly through the open living spaces, complemented by vaulted beamed ceilings and abundant windows that flood the home with natural light. Custom lighting, dual-pane windows, and Louisiana Pacific Smart Side exterior siding highlight the quality construction. The chef's kitchen boasts custom granite counters and backsplash, paired with upscale appliances and custom fixtures. Three large master suites, each with its own bathroom featuring custom fixtures, provide ultimate comfort and privacy for family or guests. Additional highlights include a heated concrete driveway, rain gutters, and an awesome back deck that's ideal for entertaining or simply relaxing amid the beauty of the mountains. Brand new furnace and tankless water heater. The build up has been finished to be livable with it's own bathroom. Approximately 400 additional space of living area. Bringing the square footage up to over 2,400. This turnkey mountain home is ready for you to create lastingmemories in one of Big Bear's most scenic areas.

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2019

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $800k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-976 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $628k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $531k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $531k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($752k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $650k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $531,365 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.23%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $622,312
• List price: $799,900
• Delta: 28.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1035 Fawnskin Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	2,036 (-3%)	2mo	$375,000	$184	78
304 Big Bear	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,912 (-9%)	2mo	$325,000	$170	74
1063 Fawnskin	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,973 (-6%)	4mo	$425,000	$215	65
1037 Grey Back Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	2,193 (+5%)	13mo	$850,000	$388	64
39326 Garden Pl	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (+1%)	16mo	$765,000	$362	60
1028 Fawnskin	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-10%)	14mo	$750,000	$400	56
39376 Garden Pl	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,168 (+3%)	23mo	$745,000	$344	56
39117 Rim Of The World Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,211 (+6%)	6mo	$1,050,000	$475	52
1048 Brookside	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,806 (-14%)	21mo	$450,000	$249	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-191,893
• Equity at exit: $119,268

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-247,669
• Equity at exit: $69,161

Cash invested: $223,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92333

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax from tax record: −$645 /mo · $7,744/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,116
• Net cashflow: $-976

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,549

Max offer price $627,553

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,975
• Closing costs: $23,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1090 Bruin Trl Fawnskin, CA	4.0	3.5	2036	$4,000	$1.96	2d	1	0.09mi
39254 Cedar Dell Rd Fawnskin, CA	4.0	3.0	1876	$10,500	$5.60	2d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $799,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $799,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $799,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $799,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $799,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $799,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $799,900 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $799,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $799,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $799,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $799,900 Active 1813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1833 chars)

    Stunning Mountain Retreat with Panoramic Forest and Lake Views in Fawnskin, CA Nestled in the heart of the San Bernardino Mountains, this gorgeous 2019-built home offers breathtaking mountain and lake views that will captivate you from the moment you arrive. Wake up to spectacular sunrises over the water and enjoy mesmerizing star-filled night skies that only a mountain setting can provide. The rear of the home features an expansive Trex deck with elegant wrought iron railings, perfectly positioned for enjoying your morning coffee while taking in the lake views. Surrounded by lush national forest, this private oasis feels like a true escape yet is conveniently located in desirable Fawnskin. Inside, the home shows like new with premium finishes throughout. Karndeen flooring flows seamlessly through the open living spaces, complemented by vaulted beamed ceilings and abundant windows that flood the home with natural light. Custom lighting, dual-pane windows, and Louisiana Pacific SmartSide exterior siding highlight the quality construction. The chef’s kitchen boasts custom granite counters and backsplash, paired with upscale appliances and custom fixtures. Three large master suites, each with its own bathroom featuring custom fixtures, provide ultimate comfort and privacy for family or guests. Additional highlights include a heated concrete driveway, rain gutters, and an awesome back deck that’s ideal for entertaining or simply relaxing amid the beauty of the mountains. Brand new furnace and tankless water heater. The build up has been finished to be livable with it's own bathroom. Approximately 400 additional space of living area. Bringing the square footage up to over 2,400. This turnkey mountain home is ready for you to create lasting memories in one of Big Bear’s most scenic areas.

16. 2026-04-01
    listed $799,900 Active 1833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1833 chars)

    Stunning Mountain Retreat with Panoramic Forest and Lake Views in Fawnskin, CA Nestled in the heart of the San Bernardino Mountains, this gorgeous 2019-built home offers breathtaking mountain and lake views that will captivate you from the moment you arrive. Wake up to spectacular sunrises over the water and enjoy mesmerizing star-filled night skies that only a mountain setting can provide. The rear of the home features an expansive Trex deck with elegant wrought iron railings, perfectly positioned for enjoying your morning coffee while taking in the lake views. Surrounded by lush national forest, this private oasis feels like a true escape yet is conveniently located in desirable Fawnskin. Inside, the home shows like new with premium finishes throughout. Karndeen flooring flows seamlessly through the open living spaces, complemented by vaulted beamed ceilings and abundant windows that flood the home with natural light. Custom lighting, dual-pane windows, and Louisiana Pacific SmartSide exterior siding highlight the quality construction. The chef’s kitchen boasts custom granite counters and backsplash, paired with upscale appliances and custom fixtures. Three large master suites, each with its own bathroom featuring custom fixtures, provide ultimate comfort and privacy for family or guests. Additional highlights include a heated concrete driveway, rain gutters, and an awesome back deck that’s ideal for entertaining or simply relaxing amid the beauty of the mountains. Brand new furnace and tankless water heater. The build up has been finished to be livable with it's own bathroom. Approximately 400 additional space of living area. Bringing the square footage up to over 2,400. This turnkey mountain home is ready for you to create lasting memories in one of Big Bear’s most scenic areas.

17. 2020-10-01
    soldstatus $649,500
18. 2020-09-24
    soldstatus $649,500
19. 2020-05-07
    listed $649,500
20. 2011-08-12
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed
21. 2011-08-12
    soldstatus $225,000
22. 2011-07-20
    status Pending
23. 2011-07-02
    listed $225,000 Active
24. 1989-07-27
    soldstatus $119,000
25. 1978-03-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,744 · $645/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,744 · $645/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,807
• − Property taxes: −$7,744
• − Insurance: −$4,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,101
• − Management: −$5,101
• − Depreciation: −$23,270
• Taxable loss: −$26,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,302
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 403

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Italian 6% Scottish 6%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.30%
• Current HPI: 318.6629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1677.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $799,900 MRCAOR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $799,900 GPSMLS
• 2020-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $649,500 Public Records
• 2020-09-24 Sold (MLS) $649,500 MRCAOR
• 2020-05-07 Listed $649,500 MRCAOR
• 2011-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-12 Sold (MLS) $225,000 CRMLS
• 2011-07-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2011-07-02 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 1989-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 1978-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,744 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.