295 Southview · Arcade, NY 14009

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1993 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this great opportunity to own your own home. This home was completely renovated this year and finished in July. New kitchen cabinets and lots of counterspace and storage. Includes Kitchen range and refrigerator. New bathrooms, and 3 spacious bedrooms. New flooring throughout the home. Replacement windows, New Steel Roof and New Shed. Low-cost utilities with Arcade Electric. Nice location in the park Buyer must be park approved.

Key facts

• New drywall
• New flooring
• New cabinets

Tags

• NEW DRYWALL
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $395

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Double wide mobile home (Astro); Residential, rectangular lot with city street frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments and drapes; Main level primary bedroom with bath in primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#774 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.86%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,816
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12202 Church St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,174 (+2%)	19mo	$215,000	$183	49
12210 Church St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (-9%)	1mo	$57,000	$55	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $32,275
• Equity at exit: $51,496

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $88,135
• Equity at exit: $91,809

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14009

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $178	+0% $149	+5% $119	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $109	+0% $149	+5% $189	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $170	base $149	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12100 Countyline Rd Arcade, NY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,015	$1.25	16d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 398-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $84,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$974
• − Management: −$974
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$122
• After-tax cash flow: $1,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608970
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,735
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2885
• State rank: #358 of 590 in NY

Livability — Arcade

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #774
• US rank: #14787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,787

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Current HPI: 281.8451
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+29.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $84,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-02-08 Sold (MLS) $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-12-17 Listed $67,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-12-15 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-12-05 Price Changed $64,999 WNYREIS
• 2023-11-17 Listed $65,500 WNYREIS