Lancia's Lincoln III Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46845

$230,200

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Lincoln III showcases a U-shaped Kitchen open to the Nook with a corner pantry. Large separate Great Room. Separate Laundry Room off Garage. 4 Bedrooms upstairs with the option of transforming the downstairs Office or Bonus Room into a 5th Bedroom with an upgrade of a closet or suite with a full bath!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 443 days

🏗️ New construction. The $230,200 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $355,268.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-540 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $203k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oak View Elementary School (math 66% / reading 55%, grade B-, #122 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 453 students, 14% FRL); Maple Creek Middle School (math 41% / reading 60%, grade C, #43 of 330 statewide, top 14%, 957 students, 14% FRL); Carroll High School (math 59% / reading 86%, grade B+, #10 of 369 statewide, top 3%, 2,554 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,576 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.51%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,268
• List price: $230,200
• Delta: -35.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 Candlewood Way	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,742 (+0%)	4mo	$270,000	$155	76
320 Forecast Cv	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-5%)	1mo	$368,900	$224	71
495 Merriweather Psge	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,938 (+12%)	6mo	$350,000	$181	68
12613 Stoneboro Ct	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (-0%)	2mo	$267,000	$155	64
11540 Rickey Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-9%)	2mo	$360,000	$228	61
11967 Falcatta Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,900 (+10%)	6mo	$359,900	$189	60
267 Marcelle Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,756 (+1%)	4mo	$339,900	$194	59
305 Forecast Cv	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (-13%)	2mo	$330,900	$219	58
10911 Mill Lake Cv	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (+1%)	2mo	$317,900	$182	58
496 Carrara Cv	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,945 (+12%)	1mo	$409,900	$211	58
1232 Willowind Trl	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,964 (+13%)	1mo	$330,000	$168	49
12415 Falcatta Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-15%)	6mo	$271,000	$184	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-78,742
• Equity at exit: $52,972

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-52,734
• Equity at exit: $30,717

Cash invested: $99,475 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $247,600 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 443 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +32.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46845

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,488 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,863
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,329/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,171

Max offer price $277,140

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-294	-5% $-417	+0% $-540	+5% $-663	+10% $-785
Rent	-10% $-736	-5% $-638	+0% $-540	+5% $-442	+10% $-343
Rate	-1.0pp $-361	-0.5pp $-450	base $-540	+0.5pp $-632	+1.0pp $-726

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,817
• Closing costs: $10,658
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
377 Forecast Cv Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,499	$1.56	10d	1	0.25mi
377 Forecast Cv Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,499	$1.56	15d	1	0.25mi
11727 Trails End Ct Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	18d	1	0.48mi
11727 Trails End Ct Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	33d	1	0.48mi
827 Dantes Voyage Dr Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,395	$1.33	10d	1	1.05mi
454 Caracol Ct Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,395	$1.33	2d	1	1.24mi
401 Augusta Way Fort Wayne, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,646	$1.62	0d	10	1.35mi
12595 Shearwater Run Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,000	$1.44	50d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $230,200 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $230,200 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $230,200 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $230,200 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $230,200 Active 439 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $230,200 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $230,200 Active 436 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $230,200 Active 435 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $230,200 Active 434 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $230,200 Active 433 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $230,200 Active 432 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $230,200 Active 431 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $230,200 Active 430 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $230,200 Active 429 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $230,200 Active 428 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $230,200 Active 427 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $230,200 Active 426 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $230,200 Active 425 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $230,200 Active 424 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $230,200 Active 423 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $230,200 Active 422 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $230,200 Active 421 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $230,200 Active 420 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $230,200 Active 419 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $230,200 Active 418 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $230,200 Active 417 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $230,200 Active 416 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $230,200 Active 415 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $230,200 Active 414 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $230,200 Active 413 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $230,200 Active 412 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $230,200 Active 411 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $230,200 Active 410 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $230,200 Active 409 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $230,200 Active 408 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $230,200 Active 407 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $230,200 Active 406 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $230,200 Active 405 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $230,200 Active 404 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $230,200 Active 403 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $230,200 Active 402 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $230,200 Active 401 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $230,200 Active 400 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $230,200 Active 399 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $230,200 Active 398 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $230,200 Active 397 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $230,200 Active 396 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $230,200 Active 395 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $230,200 Active 394 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $230,200 Active 392 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,901
• − Property taxes: −$5,329
• − Insurance: −$1,776
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$10,335
• Taxable loss: −$12,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,088
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential to be further enhanced with some exterior and interior painting, as well as landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Painting the exterior and interior walls can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can enhance the overall appearance of the home and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak View Elementary School B- IN #122/994 Nat'l #7,053/41,679 Middle Maple Creek Middle School C IN #43/330 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Carroll High School B+ IN #10/369 Nat'l #1,843/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1808250
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $78,952
• Composite: 49.26/100
• National rank: #2027
• State rank: #25 of 301 in IN

A Composite livability gradescore 84/100

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 394,020 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 29,583
• Household income: $112,676
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.27%
• Current HPI: 212.3516
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $225,700 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $224,000 Zillow