26115 Venus Trap Trl · Katy, TX 77493

$249,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,678 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3,862 sqft lot $149/sqft · 26% below area Est $338k · 26% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You’ll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

Key facts

• Dining area
• Open layout
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.35%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,654
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -25.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26247 Venus Trap Trl	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,678 (0%)	1mo	$289,900	$173	99
25302 Benroe St	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+1%)	19mo	$299,995	$177	60
25307 Ashbourne Ct	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+6%)	13mo	$299,995	$169	56
4614 Dunston Manor St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-0%)	17mo	$309,995	$185	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-24,764
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-21,578
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,239

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,049	$1.61	1d	16	0.86mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	1d	25	1.28mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	43d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You’ll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

2. 2026-05-14
   price $249,900 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You’ll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

3. 2026-05-06
   price $284,900 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You’ll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

4. 2026-04-01
   price $294,900 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You’ll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

5. 2026-02-23
   price $299,900 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You’ll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

6. 2026-01-06
   listed $307,900 Active 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You’ll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,600
• − Management: −$2,600
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $529
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$127
• After-tax cash flow: $4,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters.
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's value by making it more modern and functional for potential buyers.
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency, which is important for rental properties.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's value by making it more modern and functional for potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency, which is important for rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $284,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $307,900 HARMLS