41 Lama Dr · Shirley, NY 11967

$599,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2001 9,148 sqft lot Est $617k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 41 Lama Drive, Shirley – A move-In ready colonial with space to grow! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2 full bath Colonial offers a perfect blend of modern updates and comfortable living. From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the well-maintained exterior, spacious driveway, and attached 2-car garage. Inside, you’re welcomed by a bright and open layout featuring updated flooring and plenty of natural light throughout. The main level offers a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and renovated kitchen, complete with stylish cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and ample counter space—ideal for everyday living and entertai

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage (2 spaces); No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool septic system
• Home design: Single family residence; Approximately 1,798 total building area
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms include bedrooms within an 8-room layout
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full basement with additional bath access
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor full bath; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Open floorplan with open kitchen; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Storage space
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-201/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $597k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $527k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $527k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathaniel Woodhull Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,191 of 2,108 statewide, top 57%, 703 students, 54% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $275k; list at $600k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $526,920 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $616,714
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Lama Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,798 (0%)	1mo	$630,000	$350	99
7 Tipton Dr W	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,808 (+1%)	0mo	$620,000	$343	82
32 Rockledge Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-3%)	3mo	$520,000	$300	74
55 Lama Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,998 (+11%)	8mo	$615,000	$308	63
11 Happy Acres Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,722 (-4%)	12mo	$630,000	$366	61
23 Tipton Dr W	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,650 (-8%)	8mo	$630,000	$382	61
39 Appel Dr E	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+8%)	0mo	$665,000	$341	61
16 Flintlock Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-11%)	6mo	$535,000	$336	60
33 Breston Dr W	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-11%)	6mo	$589,000	$368	58
60 Alder Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-11%)	10mo	$635,000	$397	57
70 Breston Dr E	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,041 (+14%)	0mo	$628,000	$308	48
219 Floyd Rd	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,907 (+6%)	13mo	$600,000	$315	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-98,192
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-86,471
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,269 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$783 /mo · $9,395/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,107
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,290

Max offer price $597,042

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $153	+0% $-17	+5% $-187	+10% $-356
Rent	-10% $-433	-5% $-225	+0% $-17	+5% $191	+10% $400
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $136	base $-17	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	4d	1	1.18mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	0d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $599,999 Active
3. 2003-02-08
   soldstatus $275,000
4. 2001-01-09
   soldstatus $52,000
5. 1986-12-08
   soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,395 · $783/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,768 · $814/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$9,395
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,058
• − Management: −$5,058
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$10,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,483
• After-tax cash flow: $2,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3233.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $599,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1986-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,395 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.