306 N Orange St · Sweeny, TX 77480

$179,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,770 sqft · Land · 78 Days on market

Built 2025 5,000 sqft lot $102/sqft · 9% below area Est $198k · 9% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction Energy-efficient home with Low Tax rate! Open concept kitchen overlooking the large living-dining combo. Beautiful black appliance package including dishwasher, microwave and electric range, home is all electric with 40-gal water heater, engineered and inspected by third party engineer, HVAC system, double pane insulated Low-E windows, ENERGY EFFICIENT! LOW ELECTRIC BILLS. Ready to make it yours, easy to show. Warranty: 1 yr. workmanship & materials, 2 yr. on all systems- plumbing, electrical, HVAC & other Mechanical Systems, 10 yr. Major Structural components. NO HOA!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Low tax rate
• No hoa

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• BLACK APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• DOUBLE PANE INSULATED WINDOWS
• LOW TAX RATE
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.7% in Sweeny — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#306 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sweeny ISD (town): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #480 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.94%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,076
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -9.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $116,550
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $328,697
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77480

• Home prices YoY: 12.0%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $353	+0% $291	+5% $229	+10% $167
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $214	+0% $291	+5% $368	+10% $445
Rate	-1.0pp $382	-0.5pp $337	base $291	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1102 Avenue C Unit C Sweeny, TX	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,700	$1.01	3d	1	0.55mi
303 Yaupon St Sweeny, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$1,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.59mi
208 Silver Leaf St Sweeny, TX	3.0	2.0	1984	$2,400	$1.21	45d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Pending 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Pending 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Pending 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Pending 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Pending 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   status $179,900 Pending 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $199,900 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    New Construction Energy-efficient home with Low Tax rate! Open concept kitchen overlooking the large living-dining combo. Beautiful black appliance package including dishwasher, microwave and electric range, home is all electric with 40-gal water heater, engineered and inspected by third party engineer, HVAC system, double pane insulated Low-E windows, ENERGY EFFICIENT! LOW ELECTRIC BILLS. Ready to make it yours, easy to show. Warranty: 1 yr. workmanship & materials, 2 yr. on all systems- plumbing, electrical, HVAC & other Mechanical Systems, 10 yr. Major Structural components. NO HOA!

17. 2026-03-31
    listed $209,900 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    New Construction Energy-efficient home with Low Tax rate! Open concept kitchen overlooking the large living-dining combo. Beautiful black appliance package including dishwasher, microwave and electric range, home is all electric with 40-gal water heater, engineered and inspected by third party engineer, HVAC system, double pane insulated Low-E windows, ENERGY EFFICIENT! LOW ELECTRIC BILLS. Ready to make it yours, easy to show. Warranty: 1 yr. workmanship & materials, 2 yr. on all systems- plumbing, electrical, HVAC & other Mechanical Systems, 10 yr. Major Structural components. NO HOA!

18. 2026-02-05
    historical
19. 2025-10-17
    listed $209,900 Active
20. 2025-10-08
    historical
21. 2025-08-12
    price $209,900
22. 2025-07-11
    listed $241,990 Active
23. 2025-07-11
    historical
24. 2025-04-24
    listed $241,990 Active
25. 2025-04-21
    historical
26. 2024-11-11
    listed $234,990 Active
27. 2011-10-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$161
• After-tax cash flow: $3,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweeny ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841970
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,607
• Composite: 31.49/100
• National rank: #5975
• State rank: #480 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sweeny

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #6914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sweeny, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,252

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.27%
• Current HPI: 328.8657
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $241,990 HARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Listed $241,990 HARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-11 Listed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2011-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $351 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.