4721 State Route 9G · Germantown, NY 12526

$410,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1930 1.88 ac lot $263/sqft · 27% below area Est $560k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your colonial farmhouse perfectly situated in picturesque Germantown New York. Arriving at your new home you will immediately notice the nearly 2 acres of property, horseshoe drive, outdoor space with tiered decking and patio as well as the convenience of being minutes from the vibrant towns of Hudson, Catskill, Red Hook, Rhinebeck and Tivoli. Stepping into the sun drenched living space you will be welcomed by an updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, custom built island, ample counter and cabinet space as well as a full walk-in pantry. The main level flows seamlessly from the kitchen to the dining area and into the living room with hardwood floors and cozy pellet stove. This main level also provides a half bath, laundry room and a large storage room with a sink, cabinetry and additional entrance. Ascending to the second level you will find 2 generous sized guest bedrooms, a full bath and the primary bedroom. Your primary bedroom has direct access to the side deck and it's own entry if desired as well as a large walk-in closet providing ample clothing racks and storage space. The open staircase to the third level adds to the potential for an additional living room, media room, home gym or office space. This home combines classic charm with modern updates, all in a location that offers both tranquility and easy access to some of the Hudson Valley’s most sought-after destinations.

Key facts

• Tiered decking
• Horseshoe drive
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• COLONIAL FARMHOUSE
• NEARLY 2 ACRES
• HORSESHOE DRIVE
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• TIERED DECKING
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $370k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#441 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $294k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $322,439 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $559,796
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: -26.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
131 Northern Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+6%)	7mo	$1,200,000	$728	64
335 Northern Blvd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,683 (+8%)	13mo	$490,000	$291	42
47 Anchorage Road Rd	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-10%)	13mo	$635,000	$454	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $208,898
• Equity at exit: $369,360

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $626,526
• Equity at exit: $796,540

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12526

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,431/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,511

Max offer price $370,030

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $410,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $410,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $410,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $425,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $425,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $425,000 1433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

    Welcome to your colonial farmhouse perfectly situated in picturesque Germantown New York. Arriving at your new home you will immediately notice the nearly 2 acres of property, horseshoe drive, outdoor space with tiered decking and patio as well as the convenience of being minutes from the vibrant towns of Hudson, Catskill, Red Hook, Rhinebeck and Tivoli. Stepping into the sun drenched living space you will be welcomed by an updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, custom built island, ample counter and cabinet space as well as a full walk-in pantry. The main level flows seamlessly from the kitchen to the dining area and into the living room with hardwood floors and cozy pellet stove. This main level also provides a half bath, laundry room and a large storage room with a sink, cabinetry and additional entrance. Ascending to the second level you will find 2 generous sized guest bedrooms, a full bath and the primary bedroom. Your primary bedroom has direct access to the side deck and it's own entry if desired as well as a large walk-in closet providing ample clothing racks and storage space. The open staircase to the third level adds to the potential for an additional living room, media room, home gym or office space. This home combines classic charm with modern updates, all in a location that offers both tranquility and easy access to some of the Hudson Valley’s most sought-after destinations.

19. 2026-04-15
    price $439,000 1433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

    Welcome to your colonial farmhouse perfectly situated in picturesque Germantown New York. Arriving at your new home you will immediately notice the nearly 2 acres of property, horseshoe drive, outdoor space with tiered decking and patio as well as the convenience of being minutes from the vibrant towns of Hudson, Catskill, Red Hook, Rhinebeck and Tivoli. Stepping into the sun drenched living space you will be welcomed by an updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, custom built island, ample counter and cabinet space as well as a full walk-in pantry. The main level flows seamlessly from the kitchen to the dining area and into the living room with hardwood floors and cozy pellet stove. This main level also provides a half bath, laundry room and a large storage room with a sink, cabinetry and additional entrance. Ascending to the second level you will find 2 generous sized guest bedrooms, a full bath and the primary bedroom. Your primary bedroom has direct access to the side deck and it's own entry if desired as well as a large walk-in closet providing ample clothing racks and storage space. The open staircase to the third level adds to the potential for an additional living room, media room, home gym or office space. This home combines classic charm with modern updates, all in a location that offers both tranquility and easy access to some of the Hudson Valley’s most sought-after destinations.

20. 2026-03-23
    listed $449,000 Active 1433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

    Welcome to your colonial farmhouse perfectly situated in picturesque Germantown New York. Arriving at your new home you will immediately notice the nearly 2 acres of property, horseshoe drive, outdoor space with tiered decking and patio as well as the convenience of being minutes from the vibrant towns of Hudson, Catskill, Red Hook, Rhinebeck and Tivoli. Stepping into the sun drenched living space you will be welcomed by an updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, custom built island, ample counter and cabinet space as well as a full walk-in pantry. The main level flows seamlessly from the kitchen to the dining area and into the living room with hardwood floors and cozy pellet stove. This main level also provides a half bath, laundry room and a large storage room with a sink, cabinetry and additional entrance. Ascending to the second level you will find 2 generous sized guest bedrooms, a full bath and the primary bedroom. Your primary bedroom has direct access to the side deck and it's own entry if desired as well as a large walk-in closet providing ample clothing racks and storage space. The open staircase to the third level adds to the potential for an additional living room, media room, home gym or office space. This home combines classic charm with modern updates, all in a location that offers both tranquility and easy access to some of the Hudson Valley’s most sought-after destinations.

21. 2025-04-28
    price $450,000
22. 2025-03-21
    price $475,000
23. 2025-03-05
    listed $495,000 Active
24. 2021-05-10
    soldstatus $294,000
25. 2020-01-16
    soldstatus $249,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,431 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,180 · $515/mo
• Expected delta: +$749/yr (+$62/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$5,431
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,095
• − Management: −$3,095
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$9,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612030
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,242
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #4894
• State rank: #387 of 755 in NY

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #7728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,427

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.93%
• Current HPI: 511.9627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+70.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $439,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $294,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $249,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,431 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.