620 Oak St · Auburndale, FL 33823

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 752 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 594 Days on market

Built 1945 8,538 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CORNER LOT! This charming single-family home in the desirable Auburndale Heights neighborhood offers a perfect blend of modern upgrades and cozy living. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, the home has been completely updated with contemporary finishes throughout, a new roof and new energy efficient windows. Situated on an oversized corner lot, the property boasts ample outdoor space for gardening, entertaining, or expansion. Inside, you'll find an open concept living area with lots of natural light, a stylish kitchen with new stainless-steel appliances, and updated vinyl flooring. Ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or those looking to downsize in a quiet, family-friendly area with no

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Vinyl flooring
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Zoned R-3; Lot approximately 0.2 acres (60 x 143); Living area recorded as 752 square feet
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on public records (completed condition)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Private mailbox; Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living room/dining room combo; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane ENERGY STAR windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($330/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburndale Central Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 383 students, 64% FRL); Jere L. Stambaugh Middle (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,127 students, 65% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 483 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 594 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 13362% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $175k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,073 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 594 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-26,323
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,499
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 483
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,294/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $77	+0% $27	+5% $-22	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $-33	+0% $27	+5% $88	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $72	base $27	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Twin Pines Ln Unit C Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	640	$1,000	$1.56	16d	1	0.78mi
4 Sandy Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	954	$1,620	$1.70	25d	1	0.90mi
704 Sunset Ave Unit B Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	16d	1	1.12mi
2366 Lake Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1003	$1,350	$1.35	5d	1	1.13mi
912 Lake Jessie Dr Unit A Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	5d	1	1.22mi
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	25d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 594 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 591 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 590 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 589 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 588 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 586 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 583 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 582 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 581 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 580 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 577 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 575 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 574 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 573 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $175,000
16. 2025-11-24
    status Active
17. 2025-11-12
    status Pending
18. 2025-09-09
    historical $1,300
19. 2025-07-29
    listed $1,300
20. 2025-07-18
    historical $1,300
21. 2025-07-17
    price $1,300
22. 2025-05-08
    price $182,000
23. 2025-05-01
    status Active
24. 2025-04-30
    historical
25. 2025-04-18
    listed $1,500
26. 2025-02-22
    price $192,000
27. 2025-02-03
    price $194,500
28. 2025-01-06
    price $194,900
29. 2024-11-25
    price $199,900
30. 2024-10-22
    listed $200,000 Active
31. 2024-07-22
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,294 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,294 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,294
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$632
• After-tax cash flow: $962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+118.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Rental Removed $1,300 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed for Rent $1,300 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Rental Removed $1,300 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $1,300 STELLARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $182,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-18 Listed for Rent $1,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $192,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $194,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $194,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-22 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,294 · +117.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.