2715 San Mateo Rd Rd SW · Sunshine, NM 88030

$72,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,167 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1993 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath site-built home situated on approximately 1 acre. This property features a metal roof, stucco siding, and both a private well and septic already in place. Septic system has passed inspection, Well is operational, however did not pass flow test during the most recent inspection. The home includes a fenced-in area, ideal for pets and or gardening. Enjoy beautiful, unobstructed views of the Florida Mountains from this quiet and peaceful area. A great opportunity for anyone seeking tranquility, open space, and the comfort of country living.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Stucco siding
• Fenced-in area

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• STUCCO SIDING
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC
• FENCED-IN AREA
• UNOBSTRUCTED VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#200 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,680 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.05%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $18,323
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $54,507
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88030

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $284/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $546

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $492	+0% $471	+5% $451	+10% $430
Rent	-10% $381	-5% $426	+0% $471	+5% $516	+10% $561
Rate	-1.0pp $508	-0.5pp $490	base $471	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $72,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $72,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $72,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $72,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $72,000 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    status Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath site-built home situated on approximately 1 acre. This property features a metal roof, stucco siding, and both a private well and septic already in place. Septic system has passed inspection, Well is operational, however did not pass flow test during the most recent inspection. The home includes a fenced-in area, ideal for pets and or gardening. Enjoy beautiful, unobstructed views of the Florida Mountains from this quiet and peaceful area. A great opportunity for anyone seeking tranquility, open space, and the comfort of country living.

19. 2026-03-31
    status Pending 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath site-built home situated on approximately 1 acre. This property features a metal roof, stucco siding, and both a private well and septic already in place. Septic system has passed inspection, Well is operational, however did not pass flow test during the most recent inspection. The home includes a fenced-in area, ideal for pets and or gardening. Enjoy beautiful, unobstructed views of the Florida Mountains from this quiet and peaceful area. A great opportunity for anyone seeking tranquility, open space, and the comfort of country living.

20. 2026-03-14
    status Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath site-built home situated on approximately 1 acre. This property features a metal roof, stucco siding, and both a private well and septic already in place. Septic system has passed inspection, Well is operational, however did not pass flow test during the most recent inspection. The home includes a fenced-in area, ideal for pets and or gardening. Enjoy beautiful, unobstructed views of the Florida Mountains from this quiet and peaceful area. A great opportunity for anyone seeking tranquility, open space, and the comfort of country living.

21. 2026-03-14
    price $72,000 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath site-built home situated on approximately 1 acre. This property features a metal roof, stucco siding, and both a private well and septic already in place. Septic system has passed inspection, Well is operational, however did not pass flow test during the most recent inspection. The home includes a fenced-in area, ideal for pets and or gardening. Enjoy beautiful, unobstructed views of the Florida Mountains from this quiet and peaceful area. A great opportunity for anyone seeking tranquility, open space, and the comfort of country living.

22. 2026-03-02
    status Pending 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath site-built home situated on approximately 1 acre. This property features a metal roof, stucco siding, and both a private well and septic already in place. Septic system has passed inspection, Well is operational, however did not pass flow test during the most recent inspection. The home includes a fenced-in area, ideal for pets and or gardening. Enjoy beautiful, unobstructed views of the Florida Mountains from this quiet and peaceful area. A great opportunity for anyone seeking tranquility, open space, and the comfort of country living.

23. 2026-02-26
    listed $69,000 Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath site-built home situated on approximately 1 acre. This property features a metal roof, stucco siding, and both a private well and septic already in place. Septic system has passed inspection, Well is operational, however did not pass flow test during the most recent inspection. The home includes a fenced-in area, ideal for pets and or gardening. Enjoy beautiful, unobstructed views of the Florida Mountains from this quiet and peaceful area. A great opportunity for anyone seeking tranquility, open space, and the comfort of country living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$292/yr (+$24/mo · 102.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$284
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $4,744
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $4,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deming Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500690
• Math proficiency: 18% —
• Reading proficiency: 27% —
• Median HH income: $28,092
• Composite: 21.02/100
• National rank: #13708
• State rank: #63 of 95 in NM

Livability — Sunshine

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #200
• US rank: #23184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 24,270

Population outlook (Luna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,859 people
• By 2030: 22,105 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 20,738 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 19,336 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 15,439 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 9,313 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% White 30% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Luna

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.4% · R 58.3% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+3.9 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.37%
• Current HPI: 114.8626
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+4.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-03-14 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $72,000 NMMLS
• 2026-03-02 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $69,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $284 · -27.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.