6431 Prairie Lawn · Waterford, MI 48329

$244,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1930 7,405 sqft lot Est $264k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING AND AFFORDABLE. RANCH IN GOOD NEIGHBORHOOD WITH WILLIAMS LAKE PRIVILEGES. LIVING ROOM, FAMILY ROOM, DINING ROOM AND NICE SIZE KITCHEN. HARDWOOD UNDER CARPET IN LIVING ROOM, HALLWAY AND BEDROOMS. FIREPLACE IN FAMILY ROOM. ROOF IS NEWER. PLASTERED WALLS. AREA OF MORE EXPENSIVE HOMES. FULL BASEMENT.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot frontage approx. 50 feet; Acreage approx. 0.17
• Financial info: No investor or multifamily income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Lake Williams Heights; City municipality: Waterford (Waterford Twp)

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas for heat and water heater; Electric service for cooling/heating systems
• Home design: Residential, 1-story; Built in 1930; Basement entry/facing (basement present)
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Basement foundation; Originally built in 1930
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Fenced yard; Porch; Shed; Paved street access; All-sports lake access (Williams Lake) with boat facility and beach access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (Entry level) — 12 x 10, wood floors; Appliances: Dishwasher, Disposal, Microwave, Range/Oven, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Entry level) — 15 x 12, wood floors; Bedroom 2 (Entry level) — 12 x 8, wood floors; Bedroom 3 (Entry level) — approx. 12 wide, wood floors
• Flooring: Wood floors in living, dining, kitchen and bedrooms; Ceramic tile in bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (Entry level) — ceramic floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central A/C
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waterford School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #285 of 540 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $245k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,879 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,552
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6441 Crest Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-7%)	6mo	$236,000	$223	75
2811 Orange Grove Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,023 (-10%)	1mo	$161,000	$157	64
3039 Airport Rd	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+7%)	2mo	$230,000	$189	59
6175 Hatchery Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,019 (-10%)	3mo	$250,000	$245	57
3330 Homestead Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,173 (+3%)	2mo	$250,000	$213	56
6817 Brightwood Ct	0.50mi	2/2.5	1,048 (-8%)	2mo	$387,500	$370	56
6832 Brightwood Ct	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,004 (-12%)	1mo	$549,900	$548	53
2200 Marston Dr N	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-12%)	2mo	$231,500	$232	51
3229 Homestead Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,201 (+6%)	6mo	$256,000	$213	50
2420 Jones Rd	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,243 (+9%)	2mo	$310,000	$249	42
6275 Williams Lake Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,228 (+8%)	6mo	$195,000	$159	42
2610 Airport Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (+13%)	5mo	$320,000	$248	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-59,150
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-76,648
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48329

• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,657/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,035

Max offer price $190,984

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6400 Elmwood Dr Waterford, MI	2.0	1.0	838	$1,400	$1.67	18d	1	0.11mi
3234 Whitfield Dr Waterford, MI	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,350	$1.74	44d	1	0.59mi
2557 Desmond Waterford, MI	2.0	1.0	902	$1,595	$1.77	11d	1	0.71mi
1643 Alma Ave Waterford, MI	2.0	1.0	706	$1,500	$2.12	5d	1	1.38mi
1407 Laurel Valley Dr Waterford, MI	2.0	1.5	986	$1,550	$1.57	11d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $244,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $244,900 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 693-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on marketlisting id $244,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 630-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $244,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,657 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,214 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: +$557/yr (+$46/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$2,657
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$8,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,945
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterford School District
• NCES district ID: 2635310
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,581
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6364
• State rank: #285 of 540 in MI

Livability — Waterford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 70,153
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,715
• Household income: $85,709
• Rent vs Own: 10.6% rent · 89.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 330.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -292.54%
• Current HPI: 204.9674
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+206.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Coming Soon $244,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-11 Sold (MLS) $80,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-10-18 Listed $80,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,657 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.