Is 12823 Autumn Woods Dr in Barrett, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.7% cap rate and $-462/mo modeled cash flow at a $254,898 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 12823 Autumn Woods Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,114/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.73

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.2/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
Livability +2.8/5.0
1% rule +2.3/10.0
DSCR +1.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$254,898

12823 Autumn Woods Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This thoughtfully designed, single-story home showcases a welcoming front porch. Inside, discover an open floor plan with a great room that seamlessly connects to the kitchen. The kitchen boasts a spacious island for meal prep and gatherings. A versatile den offers extra space for work or relaxation. Retreat to the primary bedroom, which features a connecting bath that includes a dual-sink vanity. This home combines practical layouts and comfortable living with spaces designed for both everyday life and entertaining. See sales counselor for approximate timing required for move-in ready homes.

Key facts

Pickle ball courts
Swimming pool
Premium lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-462 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (12.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (17.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $211k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,431 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.73% ✗
Cap rate: 4.66%
Cash-on-cash: -5.83%
DSCR: 0.74
GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $290,990
List price: $254,898
Delta: -12.40%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1531 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,737 (+4%)	1mo	$254,990	$147	80
12807 Ivy Creek Ct	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+2%)	0mo	$220,991	$129	79
12814 Ivy Creek Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-7%)	1mo	$251,690	$161	78
1222 Bonnerjee Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-7%)	3mo	$283,990	$182	75
12815 Ivy Creek Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (+11%)	1mo	$272,190	$146	66
1226 Bonnerjee Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+14%)	2mo	$301,990	$159	64
1223 Bonnerjee Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (+11%)	2mo	$292,990	$158	63
1218 Bonnerjee Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+14%)	2mo	$272,040	$143	63
12822 Ivy Creek Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+15%)	0mo	$262,990	$137	60
12818 Ivy Creek Ct	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (+15%)	1mo	$248,640	$129	57
1531 Chimney Springs Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (+15%)	0mo	$255,990	$133	56
1214 Sea Oats Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (+15%)	3mo	$257,990	$134	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.9%
Equity multiple: 0.02×
Total profit: $-79,665
Equity at exit: $43,388

10-year hold

IRR: -39.6%
Equity multiple: -0.47×
Total profit: $-119,515
Equity at exit: $25,159

Cash invested: $81,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 53 active · 31 under contract
Months of supply: 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $244,990 ($144/sqft)
Median days on market: 87 d
This list price: 66% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +20.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

Home prices YoY: -28.6%
Rents YoY: 1.5%
Active inventory: 1446
Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,114 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,365/yr
Insurance: −$121
Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA: −$55
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
Net cashflow: $-462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,699

Max offer price $224,121

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-261	-5% $-362	+0% $-462	+5% $-563	+10% $-663
Rent	-10% $-629	-5% $-546	+0% $-462	+5% $-379	+10% $-295
Rate	-1.0pp $-316	-0.5pp $-388	base $-462	+0.5pp $-538	+1.0pp $-614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $72,748
Closing costs: $8,730
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12215 Crosby Lynchburg Rd Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,400	$1.28	16d	1	1.39mi
13702 Sun Bear Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$1,979	$1.04	31d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Community features include curbs and gutters
HOA & community: Association: Transerve Management CompanyAnnual association fee

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (entry level: first floor)
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardFenced backyardBacks to greenbelt/parkConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 13 x 15Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 12Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 12Den (first floor) — 10 x 12
Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerWindow treatmentsKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $254,898 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $254,898 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $254,898 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $254,898 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $254,898 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $254,898 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $254,898 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $254,898 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $254,898 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $254,898 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $254,898 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $254,898 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $254,898 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $254,898 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $254,898 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $254,898 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-18

pricedays on market $254,898 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $254,599 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $254,599 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $254,599 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $254,599 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $254,599 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $254,599 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $254,599 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $254,599 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $254,599 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $254,599 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $254,599 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $254,599 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $254,599 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $254,599 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $254,599 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $254,599 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $254,599 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $254,599 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-27

pricedays on market $254,599 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $251,599 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $251,599 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $251,599 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $251,599 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $251,599 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $251,599 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $251,599 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $251,599 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $251,599 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $251,599 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $251,599 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $251,599 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $251,599 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $251,599 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,372
− Mortgage interest: −$16,300
− Property taxes: −$4,365
− Insurance: −$2,252
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
− Management: −$2,030
− HOA: −$660
− Depreciation: −$8,465
Taxable loss: −$10,730

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,575
After-tax cash flow: $-2,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Sweetgrass Village is under construction and is expected to be move-in ready upon completion. It features a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an attached 2-car garage. The home is zoned to Crosby ISD and is located in a premium lot with no back neighbors, offering easy access to community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
Both New flooring — Can improve the look and feel of the home ↑
Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
Both New bathroom fixtures — Upgrades can increase the home's appeal and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Crosby Middle F TX #786/1,662 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Highpoint School East (Crosby)

Schools (NCES district)

District: Crosby ISD
NCES district ID: 4815750
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $61,079
Composite: 35.14/100
National rank: #5012
State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

Score: 56/100
State rank: #1335
US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Barrett, TX
County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 33,780
Household income: $92,201
Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
Current HPI: 264.0126
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-05-21 Price Changed $251,599 Zillow
2026-05-20 Price Changed $251,599 HARMLS
2026-05-18 Listed $261,599 Zillow
2026-05-14 Price Changed $261,599 HARMLS
2026-04-27 Listed $255,599 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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