101 Provincial Ct #48 · Saginaw, MI 48638

$79,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 981 sqft · Condo public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1967 $81/sqft · 16% above area Est $68k · 16% over $350/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming two bedroom, one and a half bath condo nestled in the well maintained MacArthur Square community. Just over 980 square feet, this lower-level unit offers easy access and a comfortable lay-out. This would be ideal for first time home buyers, investors, or those looking to downsize. It is a light-filled living space featuring a recently refreshed kitchen with newly painted cabinets and updated hardware. Step from the living room out to a private exterior balcony perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Additional amenities include assigned carport parking space, access to laundry facilities, a clubhouse and pool. Monthly HOA covers water, sewer, and grounds maintenance, making for hassle-free living. Make this one your own!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Pool
• Refreshed kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE EXTERIOR BALCONY
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• ASSIGNED CARPORT PARKING
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw Township Community Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #265 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $79k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,000
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: 16.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-2,672
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $11,259
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48638

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $438/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,055

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $178	+0% $156	+5% $134	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $106	+0% $156	+5% $205	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $176	base $156	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerlandscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-23
   listed $79,000 Active 738-char remark

   Show marketing remark (738 chars)

   Charming two bedroom, one and a half bath condo nestled in the well maintained MacArthur Square community. Just over 980 square feet, this lower-level unit offers easy access and a comfortable lay-out. This would be ideal for first time home buyers, investors, or those looking to downsize. It is a light-filled living space featuring a recently refreshed kitchen with newly painted cabinets and updated hardware. Step from the living room out to a private exterior balcony perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Additional amenities include assigned carport parking space, access to laundry facilities, a clubhouse and pool. Monthly HOA covers water, sewer, and grounds maintenance, making for hassle-free living. Make this one your own!

2. 2025-10-29
   historical
3. 2025-08-07
   price $75,400
4. 2025-07-22
   status Active
5. 2025-07-02
   status Pending
6. 2025-06-26
   price $79,900
7. 2025-06-10
   listed $84,500 Active
8. 2018-01-18
   soldstatus $38,000 Closed
9. 2017-12-20
   status Pending
10. 2017-12-12
    listed $39,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $438 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$389/yr (+$32/mo · 88.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$438
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$209
• After-tax cash flow: $1,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw Township Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2630450
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,971
• Composite: 31.01/100
• National rank: #6094
• State rank: #265 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 12,668

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.44%
• Current HPI: 164.3443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+102.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $79,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $75,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-22 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $84,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-01-18 Sold (MLS) $38,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-12 Listed $39,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $438 · -42.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.