Sterling Plan · Wentzville, MO 63385

$310,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two story home features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths with 6 different exterior elevation choices. The main floor offers a large living room off the foyer, plus a spacious family room space adjacent to the dining area and kitchen. Upstairs the master suite offers two closets, spacious private bath, plus three additional bedrooms and hall bath. Additional choices include expanded kitchen, 2nd floor laundry, enlarged pantry, bay window, and luxury master bath.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 156 days

🏗️ New construction. The $310,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $376,318.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-760 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in MO, #1,402 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Peine Ridge Elem. (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #592 of 1,115 statewide, top 54%, 531 students, 20% FRL); Wentzville Middle (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 794 students, 19% FRL); Emil E. Holt Sr. High (math 48% / reading 58%, grade C-, #88 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,273 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $233,035 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,318
• List price: $310,900
• Delta: -17.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
316 Creek Sound Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,890 (-1%)	7mo	$372,000	$197	87
113 Katie Lynn Ct	0.30mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,952 (+3%)	3mo	$340,000	$174	72
1062 Westhaven Blvd	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,902 (0%)	6mo	$379,900	$200	69
518 Westhaven Manor Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	1,902 (0%)	6mo	$379,900	$200	68
1032 Westhaven Blvd	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,081 (+9%)	2mo	$392,973	$189	62
4702 Providence Woods Cir	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,080 (+9%)	7mo	$375,000	$180	61
212 Westhaven Circle Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (-9%)	6mo	$359,900	$208	61
1033 Westhaven Blvd	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (-9%)	1mo	$364,900	$211	58
225 Schroeder Grove Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,068 (+9%)	7mo	$389,900	$189	55
347 Heather Mill Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (-9%)	6mo	$349,900	$202	53
1916 Providence Estate Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (-10%)	4mo	$368,999	$217	44
2053 Lick Creek Dr	0.71mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,733 (-9%)	8mo	$384,500	$222	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-107,056
• Equity at exit: $56,110

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-145,873
• Equity at exit: $32,537

Cash invested: $105,369 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63385

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 700
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,973
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$470 /mo · $5,645/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-760

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,292

Max offer price $266,392

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-500	-5% $-630	+0% $-760	+5% $-890	+10% $-1,020
Rent	-10% $-944	-5% $-852	+0% $-760	+5% $-668	+10% $-576
Rate	-1.0pp $-570	-0.5pp $-664	base $-760	+0.5pp $-857	+1.0pp $-956

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,080
• Closing costs: $11,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Westhaven View Ct Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,895	$1.46	4d	1	0.07mi
314 Heather Mill Dr Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,576	$1.69	9d	1	0.32mi
539 Great Oaks Meadow Dr Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,479	$1.31	0d	1	0.88mi
443 Sweetgrass Dr Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,800	$1.84	25d	1	1.00mi
714 Switchgrass Dr Wentzville, MO	4.0	2.5	1912	$2,875	$1.50	45d	1	1.02mi
422 Sweetgrass Dr Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,900	$1.53	0d	1	1.05mi
5542 Autumn Trace Pkwy Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,400	$1.67	19d	1	1.06mi
310 Rustic Oaks Dr Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.0	1753	$2,271	$1.30	25d	1	1.08mi
931 Mule Creek Dr Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.5	2211	$2,200	$1.00	18d	1	1.17mi
1503 Jordan Lee Ct Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,196	$1.57	13d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $310,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,900 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,900 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,900 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $310,900 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $310,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    This two story home features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths with 6 different exterior elevation choices. The main floor offers a large living room off the foyer, plus a spacious family room space adjacent to the dining area and kitchen. Upstairs the master suite offers two closets, spacious private bath, plus three additional bedrooms and hall bath. Additional choices include expanded kitchen, 2nd floor laundry, enlarged pantry, bay window, and luxury master bath.

17. 2026-03-01
    price $308,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    This two story home features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths with 6 different exterior elevation choices. The main floor offers a large living room off the foyer, plus a spacious family room space adjacent to the dining area and kitchen. Upstairs the master suite offers two closets, spacious private bath, plus three additional bedrooms and hall bath. Additional choices include expanded kitchen, 2nd floor laundry, enlarged pantry, bay window, and luxury master bath.

18. 2026-01-16
    listed $305,900 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    This two story home features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths with 6 different exterior elevation choices. The main floor offers a large living room off the foyer, plus a spacious family room space adjacent to the dining area and kitchen. Upstairs the master suite offers two closets, spacious private bath, plus three additional bedrooms and hall bath. Additional choices include expanded kitchen, 2nd floor laundry, enlarged pantry, bay window, and luxury master bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,080
• − Property taxes: −$5,645
• − Insurance: −$1,882
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$10,947
• Taxable loss: −$16,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,855
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and is move-in ready. Consider painting the exterior and replacing the carpet with hardwood to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — Wentzville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1402

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wentzville, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 51,330
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,330
• Household income: $112,199
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.98%
• Current HPI: 216.4917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $310,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $308,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Listed $305,900 Zillow