Canon Plan · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$379,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,813 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coastline Collection brings new single-family homes to the Friendship Oaks masterplan in charming Fredericksburg, TX. The community is within the desirable Fredericksburg Independent School District, perfect for young and growing families. This charming German town is known for its many wineries and tasting rooms, as well as fantastic shopping and dining options on Main Street. Homeowners can enjoy everything the Texas Hill Country has to offer while visiting surrounding towns for day trips and vacations.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $379,999; New construction inventory (Plan)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home; Address: 100 Aidan Trl, Fredericksburg, TX 78624
• Exterior features: Living area approx. 2813

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Canon)

🏗️ New construction. The $379,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $666,681.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 966 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,327/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 470% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $332,711 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.72%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $666,681
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Cristol Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,748 (-2%)	4mo	$650,000	$237	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-234,016
• Equity at exit: $99,404

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.96×
• Total profit: $-365,863
• Equity at exit: $57,642

Cash invested: $186,671 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 966
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,496
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$833 /mo · $10,000/yr
• Insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-1,979

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,832

Max offer price $380,336

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $166,670
• Closing costs: $20,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
247 Juanita Way Fredericksburg, TX	5.0	3.0	2210	$2,500	$1.13	17d	1	0.30mi
160 Vernons Ln Fredericksburg, TX	4.0	3.0	2981	$3,600	$1.21	11d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,999 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,999 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,999 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,999 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,999 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,999 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,999 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 510-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $379,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,345
• − Property taxes: −$10,000
• − Insurance: −$3,333
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,194
• − Management: −$3,194
• − Depreciation: −$19,394
• Taxable loss: −$36,535
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,768
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Fredericksburg, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It's move-in ready and perfect for young and growing families.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 23,741 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 470.0

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B