172 Sutter St · Toms River, NJ 08753

$325,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1955 4,791 sqft lot $305/sqft · 21% below area Est $411k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Multiple offers. Highest and best by Tuesday, May 5 at 10am. Great opportunity to own real estate in Silverton. Private Beach Club and Boat Slips with optional membership at Cedar Bay Beach Club located right down the street. This single family home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, fireplace and a fenced in yard. Roof, AC and Furnace all replaced within the last 4 years. Public sewer, public water and natural gas. Located in an X zone, you should not need flood insurance when obtaining a mortgage. Don't let this one get away!

Key facts

• Boat slips
• Ac replaced
• Furnace replaced

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH CLUB
• BOAT SLIPS
• FENCED IN YARD
• ROOF REPLACED
• AC REPLACED
• FURNACE REPLACED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Timberline roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Includes washer, dryer, and refrigerator; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Basement (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Silver Bay Elementary School (math 17% / reading 43%, grade F, #721 of 1,303 statewide, top 56%, 611 students, 28% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School East (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #271 of 431 statewide, top 64%, 1,294 students, 24% FRL); Toms River High School East (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #243 of 399 statewide, top 63%, 1,520 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $325k implies a 1931% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,533 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,466
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -21.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
73 Seaview Ave	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,078 (+1%)	18mo	$361,742	$336	52
135 Larch Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-2%)	9mo	$427,000	$411	51
6 Reef Pl	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	7mo	$439,900	$393	50
295 Kettle Creek Rd	0.55mi	2/1.0	914 (-14%)	2mo	$350,000	$383	49
101 Seaview Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,106 (+4%)	13mo	$325,000	$294	48
47 Jetty Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	15mo	$365,000	$326	48
54 Mariner Pl	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,032 (-3%)	16mo	$259,900	$252	46
46 Seaview Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,170 (+10%)	14mo	$350,000	$299	46
52 Nautilus Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+8%)	8mo	$340,000	$296	44
7 Palm Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	14mo	$384,414	$343	42
263 Maine St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,201 (+13%)	8mo	$455,000	$379	41
19 Dogwood Ln	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,220 (+14%)	12mo	$482,500	$395	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-70,108
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-93,779
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,107/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,846

Max offer price $287,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-30	-5% $-122	+0% $-214	+5% $-306	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-417	-5% $-316	+0% $-214	+5% $-112	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-131	base $-214	+0.5pp $-298	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Cedar Crest Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,000	$2.39	45d	1	0.49mi
297 Cambourne Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	1158	$3,000	$2.59	26d	1	0.58mi
7 Pollys Park Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	26d	1	0.59mi
372 Kettle Creek Rd Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	950	$2,452	$2.58	1d	5	0.71mi
73 S Shore Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	960	$2,975	$3.10	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 532-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $325,000 Active 532-char remark
3. 1982-11-01
   soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,107 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,100 · $508/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,993/yr (+$166/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 94% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,107
• − Insurance: −$2,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,472
• − Management: −$2,472
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$8,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,975
• After-tax cash flow: $-593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1931.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $325,000 MOMLS
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,107 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.