78 Henrietta Ave · Buffalo, NY 14207

$159,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1920 3,960 sqft lot $90/sqft · 17% below area Est $192k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 78 Henrietta, situated in the vibrant Riverside neighborhood of Buffalo! Lovingly and well cared for by the same family since 1977, this home is sure to please. Walk into a spacious foyer with plenty of storage for coats and shoes. The living room features a decorative fireplace that flows into the dining room area and kitchen. At the rear of the house is a cozy 2nd living room area with a full bathroom for 1st floor convenience. There is also a beautiful front porch to enjoy your Buffalo evenings on. Step out on to the large back deck and enjoy relaxing there with your family and friends on warm Summer day. With 4 bedrooms and a 2nd full bathroom upstairs, there is plenty of r

Key facts

• 3,960 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story residence; Existing condition
• Construction: Composite siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Open porch; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6 (includes bedrooms; specific bedroom locations not provided)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Separate/formal living room; Combined living and dining area; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $755 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,166/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.24%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,471
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -16.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
386 Esser Ave	0.28mi	4/1.0	1,774 (+0%)	10mo	$97,500	$55	76
5 Copeland Pl	0.52mi	4/1.0	1,780 (+1%)	7mo	$70,000	$39	67
88 Briggs Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-1%)	12mo	$185,000	$105	66
907 Tonawanda St	0.34mi	4/1.0	1,639 (-7%)	8mo	$110,000	$67	63
111 Roesch Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,650 (-7%)	9mo	$190,000	$115	62
91 Roesch Ave	0.27mi	4/1.5	1,588 (-10%)	15mo	$183,000	$115	57
68 Riverside Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,624 (-8%)	10mo	$120,000	$74	56
84 Rosedale St	0.35mi	4/1.0	1,550 (-12%)	10mo	$182,500	$118	53
44 Gallatin Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,532 (-13%)	5mo	$149,000	$97	50
45 Riverside Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,573 (-11%)	12mo	$225,000	$143	48
53 Roswell Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,554 (-12%)	0mo	$140,000	$90	47
22 Heward Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,537 (-13%)	13mo	$170,000	$111	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $33,575
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $143,039
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $614/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $755

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
61 Baxter St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2014	$1,400	$0.70	2d	1	0.31mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	0.51mi
78 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2030	$1,300	$0.64	14d	1	1.35mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	10d	1	1.36mi
62 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,250	$0.95	24d	1	1.38mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1025-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $159,900 Active 1025-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $614 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,044/yr (+$87/mo · 170.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$614
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $6,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,636
• After-tax cash flow: $7,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $614 · +52.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.