8320 Southern Forest Dr · Rio Pinar, FL 32829

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1993 7,151 sqft lot Est $330k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment Opportunity, Great location.

Key facts

• 7,151 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1993

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption claimed; Zoned R-1
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on lot of about 0.16 acres
• Exterior features: Pond view; Other exterior features; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located inside; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($226/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Rio Pinar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#341 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinar Elementary (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 377 students, 74% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 915 students, 66% FRL); Colonial High (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #505 of 667 statewide, top 79%, 3,442 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 239 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,523 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,676
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4021 Spring Breeze Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	3mo	$415,000	$309	85
3830 Spring Breeze Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+11%)	5mo	$365,000	$248	72
3248 Cimarron Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-2%)	5mo	$325,000	$249	71
8222 Sumpter Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-7%)	6mo	$362,500	$296	70
3225 Acoma Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (+8%)	2mo	$332,500	$232	63
2953 Autumn Run Pl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+1%)	13mo	$369,500	$277	63
8136 Strada Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+14%)	7mo	$350,000	$232	61
8322 Cascade Oaks Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,209 (-9%)	13mo	$342,000	$283	61
4039 Amron Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,168 (-12%)	10mo	$205,000	$176	57
3247 Kayenta Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+9%)	4mo	$355,000	$245	55
3904 Pintail Ct	0.52mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,468 (+11%)	6mo	$330,000	$225	46
4118 Anthony Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (-12%)	4mo	$309,000	$264	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-49,046
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-47,773
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32829

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,315 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,344/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,291

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $104	+0% $19	+5% $-66	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-73	+0% $19	+5% $110	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $95	base $19	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3228 Curry Woods Cir #2 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,206	$1.52	0d	1	0.47mi
3003 Pigeon Hawk Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1555	$2,650	$1.70	24d	1	0.50mi
4233 Anthony Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1210	$1,925	$1.59	16d	1	0.71mi
7931 Thrippence Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1225	$2,000	$1.63	26d	1	0.72mi
8467 Fort Thomas Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,300	$1.40	6d	1	0.93mi
2813 Whippet Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,349	$1.72	5d	1	0.95mi
7870 Pine Fork Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1119	$2,193	$1.96	0d	1	0.97mi
8225 Fort Thomas Way Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$3,200	$2.38	26d	1	1.04mi
8562 Fort Thomas Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,540	$1.80	5d	1	1.05mi
2454 Rio Pinar Lakes Blvd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,795	$1.34	26d	1	1.05mi
2454 Rio Pinar Lakes Blvd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1208	$1,795	$1.49	22d	1	1.05mi
7528 Marbella Pointe Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1141	$1,884	$1.65	0d	23	1.05mi
8581 Fort Thomas Way Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	1659	$2,450	$1.48	26d	1	1.09mi
9176 Fort Jefferson Blvd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,349	$1.82	24d	1	1.11mi
7416 Lago De Oro Unit 2-A-3 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	26d	1	1.16mi
7305 Marseille Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1138	$2,199	$1.93	17d	1	1.16mi
7416 Lago De Oro Unit A-6 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	17d	1	1.17mi
3049 Jon Jon Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,995	$1.90	26d	1	1.31mi
4117 Berkshire Bay Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1075	$2,001	$1.86	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 39-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $300,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,146/yr (+$96/mo · 85.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,344
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $1,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rio Pinar

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #5937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,819
• Household income: $99,213
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 24% White 21% Asian 8% Black 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 37% Cuban 5% Dominican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 44% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.20%
• Current HPI: 303.6592
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-19 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,344 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.