425 E 12th Sts · Spencer, IA 51301

$46,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1920 6,106 sqft lot $47/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Not a challenge for the Handyman. Ideal property for TLC skills. Two bedroom, two story and too good to pass up.

Key facts

• 6,106 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels (2-story)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 43 x 142

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 4.6% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#168 in IA, #3,020 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spencer Community School District (town): math 73% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #114 of 289 in IA (top 39%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $318 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,620 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.06%
• DSCR: 4.03
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,924
• List price: $46,000
• Delta: -68.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
518 E 13th St	0.07mi	2/1.0	952 (-2%)	7mo	$180,000	$189	87
601 E Milw St	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+4%)	3mo	$85,000	$84	72
918 E 8th St	0.46mi	2/1.0	960 (-1%)	10mo	$144,500	$151	68
1609 4th Ave E	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,025 (+6%)	8mo	$166,000	$162	68
1514 1st Ave E	0.34mi	2/1.0	953 (-2%)	20mo	$154,950	$163	64
21 W 11th St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-4%)	12mo	$137,000	$146	60
1622 1st Ave E	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,104 (+14%)	0mo	$174,900	$158	58
117 E 2nd St	0.74mi	2/1.0	976 (+0%)	9mo	$128,000	$131	57
511 Elmwood Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+10%)	9mo	$175,000	$164	57
525 E 2nd St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+3%)	4mo	$90,000	$90	49
520 E 2nd St	0.74mi	2/1.0	884 (-9%)	5mo	$60,000	$68	46
120 E 3rd St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,041 (+7%)	6mo	$120,000	$115	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $39,086
• Equity at exit: $6,859

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.30×
• Total profit: $94,007
• Equity at exit: $3,977

Cash invested: $12,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51301

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $612/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $46,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,500
• Closing costs: $1,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $46,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $46,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $46,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $46,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $46,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $46,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $46,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $46,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $46,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $46,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $46,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $46,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $46,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $46,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $46,000 Active 112-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $667 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$55/yr (+$5/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,577
• − Property taxes: −$612
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$1,338
• Taxable income: $8,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,049
• After-tax cash flow: $6,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spencer Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1926910
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,474
• Composite: 61.02/100
• National rank: #797
• State rank: #114 of 289 in IA

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #3020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spencer, IA
• City population: 12,402
• Population (ZIP): 12,402

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,277 people
• By 2030: 16,073 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 15,638 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 15,315 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 15,026 · -7.7%
• By 2100: 14,638 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.8% · R 71.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.7 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.43%
• Current HPI: 192.1741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $46,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $612 · -34.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.