159 Pine Grove Rd · East Herkimer, NY 13350

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1839 0.29 ac lot $141/sqft · 8% below area Est $152k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow offering comfort, character, and convenience in the heart of East Herkimer. With 990 square feet of living space, this home is full of charm inside and out. Enjoy relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings on the covered front porch, the perfect spot to unwind and watch the world go by. Step inside to find a cozy living area with plenty of natural light and an easy, comfortable flow throughout the home. The first-floor primary bedroom and full bath offer convenient one-level living, while two additional bedrooms upstairs provide great space for family, guests, or a home office. The laundry area is located in the basement, offering extra storage and utility space. Outside, you’ll love the beautiful, well-kept yard, in the front, a charming white picket fence—a wonderful setting for gardening, play, or outdoor entertaining. A detached garage and a new storage shed add plenty of room for tools, a vehicle, and more. Located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines small-town charm with everyday convenience. Whether you’re just starting out, downsizing, or simply looking for a cozy place to call home, this delightful bungalow is ready to welcome you.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Well-kept yard
• White picket fence

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WELL-KEPT YARD
• WHITE PICKET FENCE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NEW STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-604/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $140k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1839 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,267 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1839 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,149
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -8.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Willard St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,112 (+12%)	2mo	$113,300	$102	61
181 Folts Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0	983 (-1%)	15mo	$174,000	$177	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $73,024
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $217,629
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,407/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $131,015

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-11	+0% $-50	+5% $-90	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-97	+0% $-50	+5% $-3	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-15	base $-50	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Mountain View Ln Mohawk, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	44d	1	1.25mi
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	44d	1	1.27mi
124 W Smith St Herkimer, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow offering comfort, character, and convenience in the heart of East Herkimer. With 990 square feet of living space, this home is full of charm inside and out. Enjoy relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings on the covered front porch, the perfect spot to unwind and watch the world go by. Step inside to find a cozy living area with plenty of natural light and an easy, comfortable flow throughout the home. The first-floor primary bedroom and full bath offer convenient one-level living, while two additional bedrooms upstairs provide great space for family, guests, or a home office. The laundry area is located in the basement, offering extra storage and utility space. Outside, you’ll love the beautiful, well-kept yard, in the front, a charming white picket fence—a wonderful setting for gardening, play, or outdoor entertaining. A detached garage and a new storage shed add plenty of room for tools, a vehicle, and more. Located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines small-town charm with everyday convenience. Whether you’re just starting out, downsizing, or simply looking for a cozy place to call home, this delightful bungalow is ready to welcome you.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Active 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow offering comfort, character, and convenience in the heart of East Herkimer. With 990 square feet of living space, this home is full of charm inside and out. Enjoy relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings on the covered front porch, the perfect spot to unwind and watch the world go by. Step inside to find a cozy living area with plenty of natural light and an easy, comfortable flow throughout the home. The first-floor primary bedroom and full bath offer convenient one-level living, while two additional bedrooms upstairs provide great space for family, guests, or a home office. The laundry area is located in the basement, offering extra storage and utility space. Outside, you’ll love the beautiful, well-kept yard, in the front, a charming white picket fence—a wonderful setting for gardening, play, or outdoor entertaining. A detached garage and a new storage shed add plenty of room for tools, a vehicle, and more. Located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines small-town charm with everyday convenience. Whether you’re just starting out, downsizing, or simply looking for a cozy place to call home, this delightful bungalow is ready to welcome you.

3. 2026-04-18
   historical Active Under Contract 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow offering comfort, character, and convenience in the heart of East Herkimer. With 990 square feet of living space, this home is full of charm inside and out. Enjoy relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings on the covered front porch, the perfect spot to unwind and watch the world go by. Step inside to find a cozy living area with plenty of natural light and an easy, comfortable flow throughout the home. The first-floor primary bedroom and full bath offer convenient one-level living, while two additional bedrooms upstairs provide great space for family, guests, or a home office. The laundry area is located in the basement, offering extra storage and utility space. Outside, you’ll love the beautiful, well-kept yard, in the front, a charming white picket fence—a wonderful setting for gardening, play, or outdoor entertaining. A detached garage and a new storage shed add plenty of room for tools, a vehicle, and more. Located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines small-town charm with everyday convenience. Whether you’re just starting out, downsizing, or simply looking for a cozy place to call home, this delightful bungalow is ready to welcome you.

4. 2026-01-10
   status Pending 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow offering comfort, character, and convenience in the heart of East Herkimer. With 990 square feet of living space, this home is full of charm inside and out. Enjoy relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings on the covered front porch, the perfect spot to unwind and watch the world go by. Step inside to find a cozy living area with plenty of natural light and an easy, comfortable flow throughout the home. The first-floor primary bedroom and full bath offer convenient one-level living, while two additional bedrooms upstairs provide great space for family, guests, or a home office. The laundry area is located in the basement, offering extra storage and utility space. Outside, you’ll love the beautiful, well-kept yard, in the front, a charming white picket fence—a wonderful setting for gardening, play, or outdoor entertaining. A detached garage and a new storage shed add plenty of room for tools, a vehicle, and more. Located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines small-town charm with everyday convenience. Whether you’re just starting out, downsizing, or simply looking for a cozy place to call home, this delightful bungalow is ready to welcome you.

5. 2025-11-01
   listed $139,900 Active 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow offering comfort, character, and convenience in the heart of East Herkimer. With 990 square feet of living space, this home is full of charm inside and out. Enjoy relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings on the covered front porch, the perfect spot to unwind and watch the world go by. Step inside to find a cozy living area with plenty of natural light and an easy, comfortable flow throughout the home. The first-floor primary bedroom and full bath offer convenient one-level living, while two additional bedrooms upstairs provide great space for family, guests, or a home office. The laundry area is located in the basement, offering extra storage and utility space. Outside, you’ll love the beautiful, well-kept yard, in the front, a charming white picket fence—a wonderful setting for gardening, play, or outdoor entertaining. A detached garage and a new storage shed add plenty of room for tools, a vehicle, and more. Located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines small-town charm with everyday convenience. Whether you’re just starting out, downsizing, or simply looking for a cozy place to call home, this delightful bungalow is ready to welcome you.

6. 2015-08-28
   historical
7. 2015-01-23
   listed $75,000
8. 2001-03-14
   soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,407
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,991
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$718
• After-tax cash flow: $114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Herkimer

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+241.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-01-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-11-01 Listed $139,900 CNYIS
• 2015-08-28 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-01-23 Listed $75,000 CNYIS
• 2001-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,407 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.