10314 Russell Pines Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,250 sqft lot $166/sqft · 9% below area Est $301k · 9% under $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into comfort and style in this beautifully maintained single-story home in the desirable Sierra Vista community. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, this open-concept layout includes ceramic floors, and a light-filled design perfect for modern living. The kitchen shines with soft mat color cabinetry, quartz counters, farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances (new microwave), and an oversized island ideal for entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers dual vanities, soaker tub, a walk-in shower. Enjoy upgrades like cover patio and in wall pest defense system. Fully fenced yard, ideal for relaxing or play. Smart home with wireless thermostat and garage. Sensor & touch kitchen faucet. Community perks include resort-style pools, fitness centers, pickleball, playgrounds, scenic trails, and more! With easy access to Hwy 288, commuting to Houston or the Medical Center is a breeze.

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Dual vanities
• Ceramic floors

Tags

• CERAMIC FLOORS
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,816 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,383
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -8.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1614 Diamond Mountain Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+4%)	1mo	$265,000	$155	87
10510 Watershed Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-1%)	1mo	$258,000	$157	86
1814 Homewood Point Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-1%)	3mo	$319,990	$196	75
1202 Paradise Found Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-4%)	1mo	$265,000	$168	70
2107 Tioga View Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+1%)	1mo	$359,900	$217	70
1213 Red Hills Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-4%)	3mo	$299,900	$190	68
2119 Tioga View Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+1%)	3mo	$359,900	$217	67
9930 Opal Rock Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,659 (+0%)	1mo	$235,000	$142	62
10518 Sutter Creek Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,852 (+12%)	3mo	$354,900	$192	55
10618 Sutter Creek Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+13%)	2mo	$408,900	$218	51
1910 Temple Grove Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+11%)	0mo	$368,990	$201	49
9438 Sky Blue Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-14%)	3mo	$229,000	$162	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-71,286
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-113,307
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,733 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$758 /mo · $9,091/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,135

Max offer price $218,816

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	43d	1	0.33mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	43d	1	0.36mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	43d	1	0.36mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	1d	1	0.38mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	2d	1	0.38mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	1d	1	0.40mi
1234 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	1d	1	0.47mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,306	$1.40	1d	21	0.47mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	7d	1	0.48mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,775	$1.82	1d	1	0.49mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,850	$1.79	20d	1	0.50mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	43d	1	0.57mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	43d	1	0.75mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,700	$1.56	1d	6	0.82mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	43d	7	0.82mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	12d	1	0.85mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	22d	1	1.08mi
10203 Karsten Blvd Rosharon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,061	$2.20	1d	138	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $275,000 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    Step into comfort and style in this beautifully maintained single-story home in the desirable Sierra Vista community. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, this open-concept layout includes ceramic floors, and a light-filled design perfect for modern living. The kitchen shines with soft mat color cabinetry, quartz counters, farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances (new microwave), and an oversized island ideal for entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers dual vanities, soaker tub, a walk-in shower. Enjoy upgrades like cover patio and in wall pest defense system. Fully fenced yard, ideal for relaxing or play. Smart home with wireless thermostat and garage. Sensor & touch kitchen faucet. Community perks include resort-style pools, fitness centers, pickleball, playgrounds, scenic trails, and more! With easy access to Hwy 288, commuting to Houston or the Medical Center is a breeze.

16. 2026-04-19
    price $285,000 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    Step into comfort and style in this beautifully maintained single-story home in the desirable Sierra Vista community. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, this open-concept layout includes ceramic floors, and a light-filled design perfect for modern living. The kitchen shines with soft mat color cabinetry, quartz counters, farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances (new microwave), and an oversized island ideal for entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers dual vanities, soaker tub, a walk-in shower. Enjoy upgrades like cover patio and in wall pest defense system. Fully fenced yard, ideal for relaxing or play. Smart home with wireless thermostat and garage. Sensor & touch kitchen faucet. Community perks include resort-style pools, fitness centers, pickleball, playgrounds, scenic trails, and more! With easy access to Hwy 288, commuting to Houston or the Medical Center is a breeze.

17. 2026-02-07
    listed $290,000 Active 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    Step into comfort and style in this beautifully maintained single-story home in the desirable Sierra Vista community. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, this open-concept layout includes ceramic floors, and a light-filled design perfect for modern living. The kitchen shines with soft mat color cabinetry, quartz counters, farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances (new microwave), and an oversized island ideal for entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers dual vanities, soaker tub, a walk-in shower. Enjoy upgrades like cover patio and in wall pest defense system. Fully fenced yard, ideal for relaxing or play. Smart home with wireless thermostat and garage. Sensor & touch kitchen faucet. Community perks include resort-style pools, fitness centers, pickleball, playgrounds, scenic trails, and more! With easy access to Hwy 288, commuting to Houston or the Medical Center is a breeze.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,091 · $758/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,091 · $758/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$9,091
• − Insurance: −$2,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,623
• − Management: −$2,623
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,986
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Sierra Vista is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Resale paint interior — enhances interior appeal
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale paint interior — enhances interior appeal ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $290,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+91.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,091 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.