1498 Clayshire Dr · Murray, KY 42071

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1971 0.35 ac lot $205/sqft · 61% above area Est $239k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming craftsman style 4-bdrm. 2-1/2 bath brick home located in the city limits. This home features a formal dining room with gas log fireplace and nice built-in bookshelves. Open kitchen/living room floor plan. Spacious kitchen has updated cabinetry and countertops. Living room has new laminate flooring, built in desk space and access to the covered deck. Split bedroom design allows room for the kids and a private owners suite. Ensuite bath features a deep soaking tub and separate tiled shower. Nice corner lot with fenced backyard and storage building.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Split bedroom design
• Formal dining room

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN-STYLE HOME
• SPLIT BEDROOM DESIGN
• OPEN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Corner lot; Level lot; Plainview subdivision
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built in unspecified year
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Fenced yard; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Cooktop; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Pantry; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Murray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#380 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Murray Independent (town): math 58% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #5 of 165 in KY (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,189 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,907
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -7.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1506 Clayshire Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,109 (+3%)	15mo	$160,000	$144	79
1505 B Clayshire	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+12%)	1mo	$175,500	$146	77
1501 Clayshire Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+2%)	23mo	$167,000	$152	71
1204 Melrose Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,070 (-0%)	10mo	$177,100	$166	71
1502 Clayshire Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,202 (+12%)	8mo	$200,500	$167	68
1306 Peggy Ann Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+6%)	19mo	$156,000	$136	66
520 S 13th St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,156 (+8%)	9mo	$165,000	$143	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-37,584
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-14,684
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42071

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $775/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,658

Max offer price $196,797

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Williams Ave Murray, KY	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,698	$1.42	43d	1	1.31mi
102 Williams Ave Unit A Murray, KY	2.0	1.0	845	$1,300	$1.54	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $220,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $230,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $230,000 674-char remark
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $240,000 Active 674-char remark
19. 2024-08-05
    soldstatus $211,000
20. 2024-07-24
    soldstatus $211,000 Closed 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Charming craftsman style 4-bdrm. 2-1/2 bath brick home located in the city limits. This home features a formal dining room with gas log fireplace and nice built-in bookshelves. Open kitchen/living room floor plan. Spacious kitchen has updated cabinetry and countertops. Living room has new laminate flooring, built in desk space and access to the covered deck. Split bedroom design allows room for the kids and a private owners suite. Ensuite bath features a deep soaking tub and separate tiled shower. Nice corner lot with fenced backyard and storage building.

21. 2024-05-13
    price $234,900 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Charming craftsman style 4-bdrm. 2-1/2 bath brick home located in the city limits. This home features a formal dining room with gas log fireplace and nice built-in bookshelves. Open kitchen/living room floor plan. Spacious kitchen has updated cabinetry and countertops. Living room has new laminate flooring, built in desk space and access to the covered deck. Split bedroom design allows room for the kids and a private owners suite. Ensuite bath features a deep soaking tub and separate tiled shower. Nice corner lot with fenced backyard and storage building.

22. 2024-04-17
    price $259,900 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Charming craftsman style 4-bdrm. 2-1/2 bath brick home located in the city limits. This home features a formal dining room with gas log fireplace and nice built-in bookshelves. Open kitchen/living room floor plan. Spacious kitchen has updated cabinetry and countertops. Living room has new laminate flooring, built in desk space and access to the covered deck. Split bedroom design allows room for the kids and a private owners suite. Ensuite bath features a deep soaking tub and separate tiled shower. Nice corner lot with fenced backyard and storage building.

23. 2024-03-21
    listed $264,900 Active 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Charming craftsman style 4-bdrm. 2-1/2 bath brick home located in the city limits. This home features a formal dining room with gas log fireplace and nice built-in bookshelves. Open kitchen/living room floor plan. Spacious kitchen has updated cabinetry and countertops. Living room has new laminate flooring, built in desk space and access to the covered deck. Split bedroom design allows room for the kids and a private owners suite. Ensuite bath features a deep soaking tub and separate tiled shower. Nice corner lot with fenced backyard and storage building.

24. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus $105,000
25. 1998-10-01
    soldstatus $47,915

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,117/yr (+$93/mo · 144.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$775
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,334
• After-tax cash flow: $-242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murray Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104380
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,625
• Composite: 50.29/100
• National rank: #1882
• State rank: #5 of 165 in KY

Livability — Murray

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #18091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murray, KY
• County: Calloway County · 30,981 people
• City population: 30,981
• Metro: Murray, KY
• Population (ZIP): 30,981
• Household income: $50,198
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1046.0

Population outlook (Calloway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,071 people
• By 2030: 42,608 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 45,435 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 48,501 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 56,481 · +37.5%
• By 2100: 63,271 · +54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calloway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.2% · R 68.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.43%
• Current HPI: 274.5366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Murray, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+359.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $220,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $230,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $240,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $211,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-24 Sold (MLS) $211,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-05-13 Price Changed $234,900 WKRMLS
• 2024-04-17 Price Changed $259,900 WKRMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listed $264,900 WKRMLS
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1998-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,915 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $775 · +74.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.