1814 Blue Sage Ct · Celina, TX
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
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Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +11.7/15.0
- Cash flow +7.4/30.0
- Schools +5.3/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- 1% rule +2.4/10.0
- DSCR +1.5/10.0
- Rent growth +1.3/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$359,430
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Welcome to the Brucker at 1814 Blue Sage Court in Cross Creek! This inviting two-story retreat has everything you need to live, gather, and grow. The main level is made for making memories, with a warm and open great room, a dining area perfect for family dinners, and a kitchen you'll love cooking in, complete with a pantry to keep everything organized. A main-floor bedroom and full bath make hosting guests a breeze. Head upstairs to find a dreamy primary suite with a walk-in closet and private bath, two additional bedrooms full of possibility, a shared full bath, and a conveniently placed laundry room. Top it all off with a two-car garage and a covered patio that's just waiting for your morning coffee, this home truly has it all. Enjoy planned amenities like a pool, dog park, hiking and biking trails, and two air-conditioned community centers. Students thrive in the highly regarded Celina ISD. With easy access to the Dallas North Tollway and Preston Road, The Ranch at Uptown Celina offers smooth commutes and everyday convenience. Additional Highlights Include: washer, dryer, refrigerator, and whole house blinds. Photos are for representative purposes only.
Key facts
- New construction
- Walk-in closet
- Private bath
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $359k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (18.8% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (26.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $265k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3878 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.74% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.73%
- Cash-on-cash
- -5.56%
- DSCR
- 0.75
- GRM
- 11.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $396,017
- List price
- $359,430
- Delta
- -6.71%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1124 Broomsedge Mews | 0.14mi | 4/3.0 | 1,904 (0%) | 5mo | $388,324 | $204 | 89 |
| 1116 Bear Grass Mews | 0.20mi | 4/3.0 | 1,930 (+1%) | 0mo | $364,600 | $189 | 88 |
| 1149 Beautyberry Ln | 0.12mi | 4/2.5 | 1,930 (+1%) | 3mo | $399,450 | $207 | 88 |
| 1105 Beebalm Mews | 0.20mi | 4/3.0 | 1,930 (+1%) | 2mo | $393,200 | $204 | 87 |
| 1200 Hyssop Dr | 0.19mi | 4/3.0 | 1,932 (+2%) | 3mo | $411,569 | $213 | 86 |
| 1117 Wheatgrass Mews | 0.16mi | 4/3.0 | 1,930 (+1%) | 5mo | $385,905 | $200 | 86 |
| 1112 Beautyberry Ln | 0.17mi | 4/2.5 | 1,930 (+1%) | 5mo | $395,300 | $205 | 84 |
| 1836 Vetiver Glow Dr | 0.06mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | 2,173 (+14%) | 2mo | $438,125 | $202 | 67 |
| 1145 Beautyberry Ln | 0.12mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,693 (-11%) | 4mo | $354,331 | $209 | 66 |
| 1132 Beautyberry Ln | 0.13mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,693 (-11%) | 4mo | $344,544 | $204 | 65 |
| 1128 Wheatgrass Mews | 0.14mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,693 (-11%) | 4mo | $339,648 | $201 | 64 |
| 1121 Beautyberry Ln | 0.16mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,693 (-11%) | 4mo | $335,343 | $198 | 61 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -29.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.05×
- Total profit
- $-95,655
- Equity at exit
- $53,592
- IRR
- -48.9%
- Equity multiple
- -0.50×
- Total profit
- $-151,261
- Equity at exit
- $31,077
Cash invested: $100,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 59 active · 13 under contract
- Months of supply
- 20.8 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $458,900 ($224/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 313 d
- This list price
- 8% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -7.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 75009
- Home prices YoY
- -23.1%
- Rents YoY
- -4.6%
- Active inventory
- 3878
- Price-to-rent
- 11.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,653 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,885
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$449 /mo · $5,391/yr
- Insurance
- −$150
- HOA
- −$79
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$557
- Net cashflow
- $-467
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-218 | -5% $-342 | +0% $-467 | +5% $-591 | +10% $-715 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-676 | -5% $-572 | +0% $-467 | +5% $-362 | +10% $-257 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-286 | -0.5pp $-375 | base $-467 | +0.5pp $-560 | +1.0pp $-655 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $89,858
- Closing costs
- $10,783
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 14 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1930 | $2,395 | $1.24 | 20d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2024 | $3,050 | $1.51 | 50d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2545 | $5,800 | $2.28 | 68d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1964 | $2,500 | $1.27 | 47d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX | 1.0–4.0 | 1.0–3.0 | 1385 | $3,045 | $2.20 | 0d | 25 | 1.24mi |
| 1325 Choate Pkwy Celina, TX | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1000 | $2,158 | $2.16 | 0d | 51 | 1.28mi |
| 1364 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1884 | $2,695 | $1.43 | 39d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 1356 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1888 | $2,500 | $1.32 | 139d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 1328 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1885 | $2,500 | $1.33 | 74d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 2706 Boca Dr Prosper, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2102 | $3,445 | $1.64 | 139d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 266 Providence DR Celina, TX | 3.0 | 1.0–3.0 | 871 | $2,361 | $2.71 | 0d | 210 | 1.36mi |
| 1363 Whipsaw Trl Celina, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1888 | $2,550 | $1.35 | 20d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 2600 Kinship Pkwy Celina, TX | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1067 | $2,051 | $1.92 | 0d | 31 | 1.40mi |
| 2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2386 | $2,895 | $1.21 | 114d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Builder listing / special listing conditions: Builder
- Financial info
- Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
- HOA & community
- Mandatory HOAAnnual association feeAssociation fee covers full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, and management feesCommunity features include community pool, playground, jogging/bike path, sidewalks, curbs, greenbelt
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage with rear-facing garage door2 covered parking spaces (2-car garage)Driveway
- Security
- PrewiredSmoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectorsFire alarm
- Utilities
- Municipal utilities not in a municipal utility districtOther utilities
- Home design
- Single family residenceTwo-storyNew construction (incomplete, year built 2026)Not attached to another propertyDeed restrictions
- Construction
- Brick and rock/stone exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
- Exterior features
- Covered patio/porchGuttersWood fencingSprinkler systemInterior lotSubdivision setting
Interior
- Kitchen
- Gas cooktopConvection ovenRefrigeratorDishwasherDisposal
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom on level 2 (approx. 13 x 11)Three additional bedrooms (two on level 2, one on level 1)
- Flooring
- CarpetCeramic tileLuxury vinyl plank
- Bathrooms
- Three full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with dual sinks and garden tub
- Heating & cooling
- Central airNatural gas heating
- Interior features
- Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryDouble vanityWalk-in closetsVented exhaust fan
- Laundry & utility
- Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility roomTankless water heater
HOA detail $79/mo · $948/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 50 events
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2026-09-23days on market $359,430 Active 6 DOM
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2026-09-22days on market $359,430 Active 5 DOM
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2026-09-21days on market $359,430 Active 4 DOM
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2026-09-20days on market $359,430 Active 3 DOM
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2026-09-19days on market $359,430 Active 2 DOM
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2026-09-18pricedays on market $359,430 Active 1 DOM
Show marketing remark (1188 chars)
Welcome to the Brucker at 1814 Blue Sage Court in Cross Creek! This inviting two-story retreat has everything you need to live, gather, and grow. The main level is made for making memories, with a warm and open great room, a dining area perfect for family dinners, and a kitchen you'll love cooking in, complete with a pantry to keep everything organized. A main-floor bedroom and full bath make hosting guests a breeze. Head upstairs to find a dreamy primary suite with a walk-in closet and private bath, two additional bedrooms full of possibility, a shared full bath, and a conveniently placed laundry room. Top it all off with a two-car garage and a covered patio that's just waiting for your morning coffee, this home truly has it all. Enjoy planned amenities like a pool, dog park, hiking and biking trails, and two air-conditioned community centers. Students thrive in the highly regarded Celina ISD. With easy access to the Dallas North Tollway and Preston Road, The Ranch at Uptown Celina offers smooth commutes and everyday convenience. Additional Highlights Include: washer, dryer, refrigerator, and whole house blinds. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS#21289446
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2026-09-17days on market $369,430 Active 106 DOM
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2026-09-16days on market $369,430 Active 105 DOM
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2026-09-15days on market $369,430 Active 104 DOM
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2026-09-14days on market $369,430 Active 103 DOM
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2026-09-13days on market $369,430 Active 102 DOM
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2026-09-12days on market $369,430 Active 101 DOM
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2026-09-11days on market $369,430 Active 100 DOM
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2026-09-05days on market $369,430 Active 94 DOM
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2026-09-04days on market $369,430 Active 93 DOM
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2026-08-31days on market $369,430 Active 89 DOM
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2026-08-30days on market $369,430 Active 88 DOM
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2026-08-29days on market $369,430 Active 87 DOM
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2026-08-28days on market $369,430 Active 86 DOM
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2026-08-27days on market $369,430 Active 85 DOM
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2026-08-26days on market $369,430 Active 84 DOM
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2026-08-25days on market $369,430 Active 83 DOM
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2026-08-24days on market $369,430 Active 82 DOM
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2026-08-23days on market $369,430 Active 81 DOM
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2026-08-22days on market $369,430 Active 80 DOM
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2026-08-21days on market $369,430 Active 79 DOM
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2026-08-20days on market $369,430 Active 78 DOM
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2026-08-19days on market $369,430 Active 77 DOM
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2026-08-18days on market $369,430 Active 76 DOM
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2026-08-17days on market $369,430 Active 75 DOM
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2026-08-16days on market $369,430 Active 74 DOM
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2026-08-15days on market $369,430 Active 73 DOM
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2026-08-14days on market $369,430 Active 72 DOM
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2026-08-13days on market $369,430 Active 71 DOM
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2026-08-12days on market $369,430 Active 70 DOM
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2026-08-11days on market $369,430 Active 69 DOM
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2026-08-10days on market $369,430 Active 68 DOM
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2026-08-09days on market $369,430 Active 67 DOM
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2026-08-08days on market $369,430 Active 66 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $369,430 Active 64 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $369,430 Active 63 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $369,430 Active 62 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $369,430 Active 61 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $369,430 Active 58 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $369,430 Active 57 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $369,430 Active 56 DOM
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2026-07-28days on market $369,430 Active 55 DOM
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2026-07-26days on market $369,430 Active 53 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $369,430 Active 51 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $369,430 Active 50 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
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Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,842
- − Mortgage interest
- −$20,134
- − Property taxes
- −$5,391
- − Insurance
- −$1,797
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,547
- − Management
- −$2,547
- − HOA
- −$948
- − Depreciation
- −$10,456
- Taxable loss
- −$11,979
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,875
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,725/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner and can be further enhanced with some exterior painting and replacing the carpet in the bathrooms.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
- Both Replace carpet in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Celina ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4813290
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 61% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $83,282
- Composite
- 50.49/100
- National rank
- #1853
- State rank
- #71 of 826 in TX
Livability — Celina
- Score
- 68/100
- State rank
- #450
- US rank
- #9135
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Celina, TX
- County
- Collin County · 1,210,074 people
- City population
- 34,260
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 34,260
- Household income
- $168,250
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 25% of renters
Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,210,074 people
- By 2030
- 1,358,201 · +12.2%
- By 2040
- 1,654,061 · +36.7%
- By 2050
- 1,937,359 · +60.1%
- By 2075
- 2,567,039 · +112.1%
- By 2100
- 2,952,048 · +144.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 9%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Collin
- 2024 margin
- R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -83.07%
- Current HPI
- 276.6307
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -4.62%
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
-3.2% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-09-18 Price Changed $359,430 Zillow
- 2026-09-17 Listed $359,430 NTREIS
- 2026-06-27 Price Changed $369,430 Zillow
- 2026-06-19 Price Changed $366,430 Zillow
- 2026-06-03 Listed $371,430 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…