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1814 Blue Sage Ct
D- Composite 37.02
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +11.7/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.4/30.0
  • Schools +5.3/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.4/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.4/10.0
  • DSCR +1.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.3/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$359,430

1814 Blue Sage Ct · Celina, TX 75009
4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition 4,400 sqft lot 2-car garage $189/sqft · 9% below area Est $396k · 9% under $79/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Brucker at 1814 Blue Sage Court in Cross Creek! This inviting two-story retreat has everything you need to live, gather, and grow. The main level is made for making memories, with a warm and open great room, a dining area perfect for family dinners, and a kitchen you'll love cooking in, complete with a pantry to keep everything organized. A main-floor bedroom and full bath make hosting guests a breeze. Head upstairs to find a dreamy primary suite with a walk-in closet and private bath, two additional bedrooms full of possibility, a shared full bath, and a conveniently placed laundry room. Top it all off with a two-car garage and a covered patio that's just waiting for your morning coffee, this home truly has it all. Enjoy planned amenities like a pool, dog park, hiking and biking trails, and two air-conditioned community centers. Students thrive in the highly regarded Celina ISD. With easy access to the Dallas North Tollway and Preston Road, The Ranch at Uptown Celina offers smooth commutes and everyday convenience. Additional Highlights Include: washer, dryer, refrigerator, and whole house blinds. Photos are for representative purposes only.

Key facts

  • New construction
  • Walk-in closet
  • Private bath

Tags

CLOSE TO PARKEXTENDED PATIO2ND FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOMNEW CONSTRUCTIONWALK-IN CLOSETPRIVATE BATH

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $359k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (18.8% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (26.2% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $265k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
  • Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3878 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Recommended offer $265,348 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.74%
Cap rate
4.73%
Cash-on-cash
-5.56%
DSCR
0.75
GRM
11.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$396,017
List price
$359,430
Delta
-6.71%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
1124 Broomsedge Mews 0.14mi 4/3.0 1,904 (0%) 5mo $388,324 $204 89
1116 Bear Grass Mews 0.20mi 4/3.0 1,930 (+1%) 0mo $364,600 $189 88
1149 Beautyberry Ln 0.12mi 4/2.5 1,930 (+1%) 3mo $399,450 $207 88
1105 Beebalm Mews 0.20mi 4/3.0 1,930 (+1%) 2mo $393,200 $204 87
1200 Hyssop Dr 0.19mi 4/3.0 1,932 (+2%) 3mo $411,569 $213 86
1117 Wheatgrass Mews 0.16mi 4/3.0 1,930 (+1%) 5mo $385,905 $200 86
1112 Beautyberry Ln 0.17mi 4/2.5 1,930 (+1%) 5mo $395,300 $205 84
1836 Vetiver Glow Dr 0.06mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,173 (+14%) 2mo $438,125 $202 67
1145 Beautyberry Ln 0.12mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,693 (-11%) 4mo $354,331 $209 66
1132 Beautyberry Ln 0.13mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,693 (-11%) 4mo $344,544 $204 65
1128 Wheatgrass Mews 0.14mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,693 (-11%) 4mo $339,648 $201 64
1121 Beautyberry Ln 0.16mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,693 (-11%) 4mo $335,343 $198 61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-29.3%
Equity multiple
0.05×
Total profit
$-95,655
Equity at exit
$53,592
10-year hold
IRR
-48.9%
Equity multiple
-0.50×
Total profit
$-151,261
Equity at exit
$31,077

Cash invested: $100,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
59 active · 13 under contract
Months of supply
20.8 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$458,900 ($224/sqft)
Median days on market
313 d
This list price
8% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

Home prices YoY
-23.1%
Rents YoY
-4.6%
Active inventory
3878
Price-to-rent
11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,653 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,885
Tax est. 1.5%
$449 /mo · $5,391/yr
Insurance
$150
HOA
$79
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$557
Net cashflow
$-467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,244
Max offer price $291,899
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-218 -5% $-342 +0% $-467 +5% $-591 +10% $-715
Rent -10% $-676 -5% $-572 +0% $-467 +5% $-362 +10% $-257
Rate -1.0pp $-286 -0.5pp $-375 base $-467 +0.5pp $-560 +1.0pp $-655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$89,858
Closing costs
$10,783
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 14 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 1930 $2,395 $1.24 20d 1 0.10mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX 3.0 2.0 2024 $3,050 $1.51 50d 1 0.97mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2545 $5,800 $2.28 68d 1 1.09mi
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1964 $2,500 $1.27 47d 1 1.12mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX 1.0–4.0 1.0–3.0 1385 $3,045 $2.20 0d 25 1.24mi
1325 Choate Pkwy Celina, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1000 $2,158 $2.16 0d 51 1.28mi
1364 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1884 $2,695 $1.43 39d 1 1.33mi
1356 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1888 $2,500 $1.32 139d 1 1.33mi
1328 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1885 $2,500 $1.33 74d 1 1.34mi
2706 Boca Dr Prosper, TX 4.0 3.0 2102 $3,445 $1.64 139d 1 1.35mi
266 Providence DR Celina, TX 3.0 1.0–3.0 871 $2,361 $2.71 0d 210 1.36mi
1363 Whipsaw Trl Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1888 $2,550 $1.35 20d 1 1.40mi
2600 Kinship Pkwy Celina, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1067 $2,051 $1.92 0d 31 1.40mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2386 $2,895 $1.21 114d 1 1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Builder listing / special listing conditions: Builder
Financial info
Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
HOA & community
Mandatory HOAAnnual association feeAssociation fee covers full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, and management feesCommunity features include community pool, playground, jogging/bike path, sidewalks, curbs, greenbelt

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with rear-facing garage door2 covered parking spaces (2-car garage)Driveway
Security
PrewiredSmoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectorsFire alarm
Utilities
Municipal utilities not in a municipal utility districtOther utilities
Home design
Single family residenceTwo-storyNew construction (incomplete, year built 2026)Not attached to another propertyDeed restrictions
Construction
Brick and rock/stone exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features
Covered patio/porchGuttersWood fencingSprinkler systemInterior lotSubdivision setting

Interior

Kitchen
Gas cooktopConvection ovenRefrigeratorDishwasherDisposal
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on level 2 (approx. 13 x 11)Three additional bedrooms (two on level 2, one on level 1)
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tileLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms
Three full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with dual sinks and garden tub
Heating & cooling
Central airNatural gas heating
Interior features
Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryDouble vanityWalk-in closetsVented exhaust fan
Laundry & utility
Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility roomTankless water heater

HOA detail $79/mo · $948/yr

Likely covers
pool

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $359,430 Active 6 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $359,430 Active 5 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $359,430 Active 4 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $359,430 Active 3 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $359,430 Active 2 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    pricedays on marketlisting id $359,430 Active 1 DOM
    Show marketing remark (1188 chars)

    Welcome to the Brucker at 1814 Blue Sage Court in Cross Creek! This inviting two-story retreat has everything you need to live, gather, and grow. The main level is made for making memories, with a warm and open great room, a dining area perfect for family dinners, and a kitchen you'll love cooking in, complete with a pantry to keep everything organized. A main-floor bedroom and full bath make hosting guests a breeze. Head upstairs to find a dreamy primary suite with a walk-in closet and private bath, two additional bedrooms full of possibility, a shared full bath, and a conveniently placed laundry room. Top it all off with a two-car garage and a covered patio that's just waiting for your morning coffee, this home truly has it all. Enjoy planned amenities like a pool, dog park, hiking and biking trails, and two air-conditioned community centers. Students thrive in the highly regarded Celina ISD. With easy access to the Dallas North Tollway and Preston Road, The Ranch at Uptown Celina offers smooth commutes and everyday convenience. Additional Highlights Include: washer, dryer, refrigerator, and whole house blinds. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS#21289446

  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $369,430 Active 106 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $369,430 Active 105 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $369,430 Active 104 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $369,430 Active 103 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $369,430 Active 102 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $369,430 Active 101 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $369,430 Active 100 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $369,430 Active 94 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $369,430 Active 93 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $369,430 Active 89 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $369,430 Active 88 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $369,430 Active 87 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $369,430 Active 86 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $369,430 Active 85 DOM
  21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $369,430 Active 84 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $369,430 Active 83 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $369,430 Active 82 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $369,430 Active 81 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $369,430 Active 80 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $369,430 Active 79 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $369,430 Active 78 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $369,430 Active 77 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $369,430 Active 76 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $369,430 Active 75 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $369,430 Active 74 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $369,430 Active 73 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $369,430 Active 72 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $369,430 Active 71 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $369,430 Active 70 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $369,430 Active 69 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $369,430 Active 68 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $369,430 Active 67 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $369,430 Active 66 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $369,430 Active 64 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $369,430 Active 63 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $369,430 Active 62 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $369,430 Active 61 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $369,430 Active 58 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $369,430 Active 57 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $369,430 Active 56 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $369,430 Active 55 DOM
  48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $369,430 Active 53 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $369,430 Active 51 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $369,430 Active 50 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$31,842
− Mortgage interest
−$20,134
− Property taxes
−$5,391
− Insurance
−$1,797
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,547
− Management
−$2,547
− HOA
−$948
− Depreciation
−$10,456
Taxable loss
−$11,979
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,875
After-tax cash flow
$-2,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,520–$28,560 screening

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner and can be further enhanced with some exterior painting and replacing the carpet in the bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
  • Both Replace carpet in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Celina ISD
NCES district ID
4813290
Math proficiency
50% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency
61% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$83,282
Composite
50.49/100
National rank
#1853
State rank
#71 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

Score
68/100
State rank
#450
US rank
#9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Celina, TX
County
Collin County · 1,210,074 people
City population
34,260
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
34,260
Household income
$168,250
Rent vs Own
8.0% rent · 92.0% own
Severe rent burden
25% of renters

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,210,074 people
By 2030
1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040
1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050
1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075
2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100
2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity
White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 9%
Common ancestry
Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin
R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-3.2% since first listed
5 events — show timeline
  • 2026-09-18 Price Changed $359,430 Zillow
  • 2026-09-17 Listed $359,430 NTREIS
  • 2026-06-27 Price Changed $369,430 Zillow
  • 2026-06-19 Price Changed $366,430 Zillow
  • 2026-06-03 Listed $371,430 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…