5013 Foxwood Blvd · Lakeland, FL 33810

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 695 Days on market

Built 1986 4,800 sqft lot $68/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Charming 2BR/2BA home in the sought-after 55+ community of Foxwood Lake Estates — where you own the land! This well-maintained home offers major updates, including a 2-year-old metal roof, 3–4-year-old A/C, new hot water heater and dishwasher (March 2026), and updated GFI receptacles for added peace of mind. The spacious open-concept living and dining area is perfect for entertaining, while the screened-in porch and air-conditioned utility room/workshop provide extra space for relaxing or hobbies. A rare find in the community, this property features two driveways with parking for up to four vehicles. Residents enjoy an active lifestyle with access to a l

Key facts

• Community pool
• Spacious open floor
• 4,800 sq ft lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF 2 YEARS OLD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR
• CLUBHOUSE ON THE LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished
• HOA & community: HOA required (Foxwood Lake Estates/Melody) — $68.06 monthly ($816.75 annually); Community clubhouse, pool, fitness center, dog park; Deed restrictions; Buyer approval required; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 4 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio; Patio; Shade shutters; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sleepy Hill Elementary School (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 739 students, 66% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 695 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $165k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 695 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,503
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,485
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $385/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,309

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $292	+0% $245	+5% $199	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $181	+0% $245	+5% $309	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $287	base $245	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	25d	1	0.31mi
1567 Longbow Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	864	$1,195	$1.38	4d	1	0.34mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,910	$1.91	5d	21	0.73mi
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	4d	15	0.76mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	25d	1	0.86mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	23d	8	0.92mi
909 Shirley Ann Trl Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,460	$1.54	25d	1	0.94mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	4d	24	1.01mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	25d	1	1.04mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	25d	1	1.05mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	15d	2	1.05mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	15d	1	1.11mi
4355 Corporate Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	872	$1,531	$1.76	12d	1	1.15mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	16d	1	1.29mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	20d	1	1.41mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 695 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 692 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 691 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 690 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 689 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 687 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 684 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 683 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 682 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 681 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 678 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 676 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 675 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 674 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    status Active
16. 2026-03-31
    price $165,000
17. 2026-03-23
    status Active
18. 2026-03-15
    status Pending
19. 2026-01-09
    price $170,000
20. 2025-07-10
    price $175,000
21. 2025-05-12
    price $180,000
22. 2025-03-24
    price $185,000
23. 2025-02-07
    price $200,000
24. 2024-08-07
    price $210,000
25. 2024-07-11
    listed $220,000 Active
26. 1996-11-05
    soldstatus $47,500
27. 1993-12-02
    soldstatus $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $385 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$984/yr (+$82/mo · 255.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$385
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $258
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$62
• After-tax cash flow: $2,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+352.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-11 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 1993-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $385 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.