479 VT-110 · Tunbridge, VT 05077

$124,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 1850

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1850 home in Tunbridge, VT with history and strong potential. Originally home to a blacksmith, this property offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, multiple living spaces, and a shop/garage on 1.25 acres along Route 110. Property Highlights: Built in 1850 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms (full bath downstairs, half bath upstairs) Kitchen, dining, living, office, laundry area Roof (~10 years) & amp; windows (~15 years) updated Oil furnace + pellet furnace (working but not connected) Septic in good order (pumped Oct. 2022) Ample driveway parking, lawn space, and shop/garage Condition: Home is being sold AS IS. Cosmetic updating and plumbing work needed. Small old outbuilding should be r

Key facts

• Built 1850
• Listed 39 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (28 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($857 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,280 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.61%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $19,670
• Equity at exit: $41,930

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $62,838
• Equity at exit: $55,411

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05077

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$155 /mo · $1,860/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,085

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $364	-5% $321	+0% $278	+5% $235	+10% $192
Rent	-10% $165	-5% $221	+0% $278	+5% $335	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $310	base $278	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $124,000 Active 883-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$1,860
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable income: $1,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$348
• After-tax cash flow: $2,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Tunbridge

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,085

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,186 people
• By 2030: 27,359 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 25,221 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 23,023 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 18,621 · -33.9%
• By 2100: 14,477 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Lithuanian 4% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.2) · D 58.3% · R 38.1% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 20.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.2 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+18.8 2012: D+32.1 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.94%
• Current HPI: 143.7975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $124,000 FSBO.com