2875 Valier Dr · Semmes, AL 36618

$89,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1973 1,306 sqft lot $56/sqft · 50% below area Est $179k · 50% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in the heart of Mobile, Alabama! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers incredible potential as a primary residence, dream renovation, or income-producing rental property. Located just minutes from Magnolia Golf Course, along with popular local eateries, parks, and shopping, this property combines location, space, and versatility. With a functional layout and generous bedroom count, it’s ideal for homeowners looking to customize or investors seeking strong rental demand in a desirable area. Whether you’re planning to make it your own or add to your investment portfolio, this property offers value and opportunity in a prime Mobile location.

Key facts

• Strong rental demand
• Magnolia golf course
• Desirable area

Tags

• MAGNOLIA GOLF COURSE
• STRONG RENTAL DEMAND
• DESIRABLE AREA
• PRIME MOBILE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.34%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,725
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -49.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3041 W Pretty Branch Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (+3%)	5mo	$225,000	$137	69
2960 Pretty Branch Dr E	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,653 (+3%)	9mo	$175,000	$106	65
3220 Macarson Cir	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,675 (+5%)	3mo	$275,000	$164	63
3000 Pretty Branch Dr W	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,653 (+3%)	14mo	$79,100	$48	63
6940 Pocahontas Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,559 (-3%)	9mo	$157,500	$101	57
2645 Schillinger Rd N	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,508 (-6%)	10mo	$191,000	$127	56
3251 Woodard Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-4%)	5mo	$175,000	$114	56
3001 Pretty Branch Dr E	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,421 (-11%)	4mo	$175,000	$123	54
2980 Pretty Branch Dr E	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,769 (+10%)	18mo	$170,000	$96	50
2428 Blue Grass Way	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,728 (+8%)	9mo	$125,000	$72	47
3335 Harwell Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (-4%)	15mo	$245,000	$160	44
2861 Charmingdale Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-6%)	11mo	$197,000	$131	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $31,333
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $86,433
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36618

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,679 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,160/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $720

Break-even live

Break-even rent $767

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6961 Charmingdale Dr S Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,300	$0.81	43d	1	0.82mi
6931 Charmingdale Dr S Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,795	$1.19	21d	1	0.88mi
6931 Charmingdale Dr S Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,850	$1.20	43d	1	0.88mi
3100 Lacoste Rd Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,795	$1.17	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $89,900 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Great opportunity in the heart of Mobile, Alabama! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers incredible potential as a primary residence, dream renovation, or income-producing rental property. Located just minutes from Magnolia Golf Course, along with popular local eateries, parks, and shopping, this property combines location, space, and versatility. With a functional layout and generous bedroom count, it’s ideal for homeowners looking to customize or investors seeking strong rental demand in a desirable area. Whether you’re planning to make it your own or add to your investment portfolio, this property offers value and opportunity in a prime Mobile location.

18. 2026-01-20
    listed $99,900 Active 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Great opportunity in the heart of Mobile, Alabama! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers incredible potential as a primary residence, dream renovation, or income-producing rental property. Located just minutes from Magnolia Golf Course, along with popular local eateries, parks, and shopping, this property combines location, space, and versatility. With a functional layout and generous bedroom count, it’s ideal for homeowners looking to customize or investors seeking strong rental demand in a desirable area. Whether you’re planning to make it your own or add to your investment portfolio, this property offers value and opportunity in a prime Mobile location.

19. 2024-02-22
    soldstatus $119,900
20. 2023-11-21
    soldstatus $102,004

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,160
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $7,659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,838
• After-tax cash flow: $6,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 17,892
• Household income: $61,550
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 542.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 27% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.54%
• Current HPI: 218.7133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $89,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $99,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2023-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $102,004 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,160 · +43.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.