11526 Heritage Wind Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

$279,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,003 sqft · Land · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 7,032 sqft lot $140/sqft · 8% above area Est $259k · 8% over $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

Key facts

• New home community
• Dining room
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• NEW HOME COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($751/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $228,050 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,626
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: 7.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-44,893
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,984
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,279/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,201

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $279,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $278,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $278,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $278,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $278,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    status Active 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

15. 2026-05-14
    price $278,900 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

16. 2026-03-28
    historical 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $277,900 Active 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,122 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,843/yr (+$320/mo · 300.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,279
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $1,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $278,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $277,900 Zillow

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,279 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.