4307 41st St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,979 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1952 7,500 sqft lot $81/sqft · 27% below area Est $209k · 23% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owned by the same family for decades, this home has been loved and cared for. Located in a well established Lubbock neighborhood, it offers generous space throughout to give you the flexibility to live comfortably. The living and dining areas flow seamlessly into additional living spaces, creating a layout that's both open and functional. Offering three bedrooms and two bathrooms, along with a converted garage that provides an additional flex space. Enjoy time on the covered patio, perfect for morning coffee or winding down in the evenings. The backyard also features a work shed, offering additional space for storage, tools, or weekend projects. With close proximity to parks, restaurants, t

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Work shed
• 7,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACES
• COVERED PATIO
• WORK SHED
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PARKS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Playground in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Converted garage
• Utilities: Standard utilities (water, sewer, power not specified)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Stone and wood siding construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Built on 1 story (above grade finished area 1,891)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Fenced backyard; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-standing range; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maedgen El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 323 students, 91% FRL); Hutchinson Middle (math 57% / reading 63%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 833 students, 49% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.77%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,025
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -23.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4203 38th St	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,151 (+9%)	11mo	$174,999	$81	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-20,965
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-16,310
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,024/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4211 41st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$1,599	$0.82	44d	1	0.06mi
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	44d	1	0.06mi
4315 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,450	$0.93	21d	1	0.08mi
3812 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	21d	1	0.44mi
3712 37th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,100	$1.26	44d	1	0.50mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.50mi
3708 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2378	$1,750	$0.74	13d	1	0.54mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	44d	1	0.54mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.56mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	21d	1	0.56mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	0.58mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	44d	1	0.60mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	44d	1	0.60mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,368	$1.27	13d	9	0.63mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	21d	1	0.66mi
4210 52nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,575	$0.92	13d	1	0.68mi
4314 52nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1863	$1,400	$0.75	21d	1	0.68mi
4103 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	44d	1	0.68mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	21d	1	0.70mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	13d	1	0.73mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	21d	1	0.74mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	44d	1	0.77mi
4313 53rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1368	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	0.77mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.78mi
3505 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1686	$1,550	$0.92	44d	1	0.79mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.82mi
4213 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,550	$0.92	13d	1	0.83mi
3408 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$1,895	$0.98	44d	1	0.85mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	0.85mi
3417 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	44d	1	0.86mi
5018 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1245	$1,275	$1.02	13d	1	0.86mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	13d	1	0.89mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	21d	1	0.90mi
5202 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,022	$0.94	21d	1	0.91mi
4324 56th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,000	$0.99	44d	1	0.93mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	0.93mi
3415 49th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,350	$0.96	44d	1	0.94mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.94mi
5302 Kenosha Ave Unit 5324 Kenosha Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$950	$0.73	13d	1	0.94mi
5302 Kenosha Ave Unit 5330 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,050	$0.81	44d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $160,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   status $160,000 Pending 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $165,000 885-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $170,000 Active 885-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,024 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,024 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,024
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$324
• After-tax cash flow: $1,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $160,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $165,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $170,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,024 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.