1619 Paynes Mill Rd · Lake Monticello, VA 22974

$415,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1990 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

One level living in this well maintained home on 2 acres just 15 minutes to Charlottesville, UVA and downtown. Spacious brick rancher with lots of space. Formal living and dining rooms, family room with fireplace, huge rec room; master suite with private bath, 2 additional bedrooms and full bath. Large level lot with shed, paved circular driveway. New hot water heater, plumbing, heat pump with backup propane heat, generator. Convenient to Interstate 64. Tax assessment does not include rec room addition.

Key facts

• Private acres
• One-level living
• Storage shed

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• PRIVATE ACRES
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• FAMILY ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Stick-built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a 2-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump cooling; Heat pump and propane heating
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $369k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $369k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (715 students, 52% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $116k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $254k; list at $415k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $368,979 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $247,950
• Equity at exit: $373,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $712,570
• Equity at exit: $806,254

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22974

• Home prices YoY: 12.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,632/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$775
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,251

Max offer price $415,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $464	+0% $346	+5% $229	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $201	+0% $346	+5% $492	+10% $638
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $452	base $346	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $415,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 532-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $415,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,632 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,403 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$771/yr (+$64/mo · 29.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$2,632
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,542
• − Management: −$3,542
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$680
• After-tax cash flow: $4,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,123

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 37.70%
• Current HPI: 351.8003
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+2271.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $415,000 CAAR
• 2020-07-10 Sold (MLS) $253,500 CAAR
• 2020-03-21 Listed $250,000 CAAR
• 1990-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,632 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.